Ilabhorethri ye-roulette · Ilabhorethri · Isitatistiki · imizuzu 7

Ubukhulu besampula

Kudingeka ukujikeleza okungaki ngaphambi kokuba iphethini isho okuthile.

Impendulo emfushane

Ukuze uthole ngokuqiniseka okwanele igodi elishaywa ka-1 kokungu-30 esikhundleni sika-1 kokungu-37, kudingeka cishe ukujikeleza okungu-4,400. Ukuthola igodi elishaywa ka-1 kokungu-35, uhlobo olungaletha inzuzo ngempela, kudinga cishe ukujikeleza okungu-70,000.

1 kokungu-25
ukujikeleza ~1,100
1 kokungu-30
ukujikeleza ~4,400
1 kokungu-35
ukujikeleza ~70,000
umsindo wezibalo
∝ 1/√n

Kungani kukuningi kangaka

Uphawu, okungukushaywa okumbalwa okwengeziwe kukho konke ukujikeleza okuyinkulungwane, luncane uma luqhathaniswa nomsindo we-binomial ongu-√(n·p·(1−p)) ≈ √(n/37). Umsindo wehla njengo-1/√n, ngakho ukwehlisa ukungaqiniseki kube uhhafu kudinga ukujikeleza okuphindwe kane. IgodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → elingu-1/30 lishaywa izikhathi ezingu-33 enkulungwaneni uma kulindelwe ezingu-27: ukushaywa okwengeziwe okuyisithupha, ukuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → kucishe kube yisihlanu. Isampula elilodwa lenkulungwane alikwazi ukuhlukanisa lezi zinto ngokuthembekile.

Ukujikeleza okudingekayo ukuthola igodi elichemile (amandla angu-80%, uhlangothi olulodwa ku-5%)ukujikeleza
1 kokungu-20
≈ 500
1 kokungu-25
≈ 1,100
1 kokungu-30
≈ 4,400
1 kokungu-33
≈ 10,000
1 kokungu-35
≈ 70,000
ukujikeleza
035000≈ 70,000
Ukuchema okungaletha inzuzo (1/35 noma ngcono) kudinga amashumi ezinkulungwane zokujikeleza. Lokho ongakubona ekujikelezeni okuyinkulungwane kukhulu kakhulu futhi bekungeke kusinde ekulungisweni kwesondo.

Ifomula

Ekuhloleni kohlangothi olulodwa kwegodi elilodwa ezingeni lika-5% ngamandla angu-80%, i-n edingekayo icishe ibe ngu-((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))², lapho u-p₀ = 1/37 kanti u-p₁ yizinga osola ukuthi likhona. Lokhu kusebenza egodini elilodwa elikhethwe kusengaphambili. Uma uhlola wonke amagodi angu-37 ufuna elishisa kakhulu, phindaphinda i-n cishe kabili kuya kathathu ukuze izinga lemiphumela engamanga lihlale lithembekile.

Ukufunda okusebenzayo

Inombolo eshisayoinganekwaneInombolo eshisayoInombolo evele kaningi kunalokho obekulindelekile muva nje. Esondweni elingenzeleli ayibikezeli lutho.Funda konke → ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-300 iwumsindo nje. Ngemuva kokungu-3,000 iyisizathu sokuqoqa okunye okungu-3,000 esondweni elifanayo. Ngemuva kokungu-30,000 kungenzeka kube yisondo okufanele likalwe uqobo lwalo. Konke ukusetshenziswa kokuchema okwabhalwa emlandweni kwakhelwe phezu kwamashumi ezinkulungwane zokujikeleza okuqoshiwe, futhi ngakunye kwathatha izinyanga.

ukujikeleza okuqoshiweongakusho ngokwethembeka
< 500akukho lutho nganoma yiliphi igodi
1,000ukuhlolwa kwe-chi-square kungenziwa; kuthola amaphutha amakhulu kuphela
5,000igodi elingu-1/30 kungenzeka livele; elingu-1/35 belingeke livele
20,000igodi elingu-1/33 livela ngokucacile; izigaba zingadwetshwa
70,000+igodi elingu-1/35 elinenzuzo lingaqinisekiswa
noma yiliphi inani, lihlanganiswe kusuka emasondweni ahlukenelutho; uhlola ingxube

Izindleko zedatha

Ngokujikeleza okungu-50 ngehora, ukujikeleza okungu-10,000 kungamahora angu-200 okuqopha, noma amasonto ambalwa okukopisha imilando eshicilelwe, kusuka ekhanda lesondookokusebenzaIkhanda lesondoKusho okufanayo ne-rotor: ingxenye ejikelezayo ephethe izinombolo.Funda konke → elilodwa elaziwayo ikhasino engakalijikisi noma engakalishintsheli izihlukanisi phakathi naleso sikhathi. Lokhu, hhayi isitatistiki, yikho okwenza ukudlala ngokuchema kwaphela: umjikelezo wokulungiswa kwesondo mfushane kunomjikelezo wokuqoqa idatha.

Ukufunda umlando wokujikeleza oshicilelwe

Usayizi wesampula wenzuzo uqobo

Izibalo ezifanayo zisho ukuthi kuthatha isikhathi esingakanani ukuthi umdlali abone inzuzo yekhasinoizibaloInzuzo yekhasinoIngxenye yenani ngalinye elibhejwayo ikhasino eyigcinayo ngokwesilinganiso: ama-2.70% ku-roulette yaseYurophu.Funda konke → emiphumeleni yakhe: cishe ukujikeleza okungu-1,400 kokubheja okulingana nemali ku-sigma eyodwa, nokungu-10,000 ukuze inzuzo ingabe isangabazeka. Noma ubani othi uhlelo luyasebenza ekujikelezeni okumbalwa kunalokho ubika umsindo nje.

Ifomula

n ≈ ((1.645·√(p₀(1−p₀)) + 0.84·√(p₁(1−p₁))) / (p₁ − p₀))²
σ(isibalo) = √(n·p·(1−p))

Imibuzo

Ingabe ikhona indlela emfushane?

Ukuhlola izigabaisondoIsigabaIngxenye eqhubekayo yamagodi alandelanayo esondweni, ehlukile eqenjini lezinombolo ethebuleni lokubheja.Funda konke → esikhundleni samagodi kuyasiza, ngoba iphutha lomzimba ngokuvamile lithinta ingxenye yesondo futhi uphawu luyahlangana kuwo wonke amagodi. Kodwa inani lokujikeleza okudingekayo lihlala lisezingeni elifanayo lobukhulu.

Ngingayihlanganisa yini idatha yesondo elifanayo ezinsukwini ezahlukene?

Yebo, uma ikhanda lesondo lifana futhi lingakalungiswa. Yilokho okunzima ukukwazi.

Kungani amandla angu-80%?

Kungumkhuba ojwayelekile. Kusho ukuthi ukuchema kwangempela kobukhulu obushiwo kungatholwa izikhathi ezine kweziyisihlanu.

Okokuhlekisa

Umsindo wehla njengo-1/√n. Ukubekezela kwehla ngokushesha kunalokho.

Umsindo wehla njengo-1/√n. Ukubekezela kwehla ngokushesha kunalokho.

Imithombo

  1. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, uhlelo lwesi-3, 1968. Gambler’s ruin (ukuphelelwa yimali komgembuli), isahluko XIV.
  2. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1983.
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kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗