Izibalo ze-roulette · Inkinga yezibalo · imizuzu 7

Inkinga: Kuze kube nini kuphume iqanda

Q: Ingabe iqanda livela kakhulu kwamanye amasondo?

Hhayi esondweni elifanele. Esondweni elichemile noma yiliphi igodi lingavela kakhulu, futhi bekungadinga izinkulungwane zokujikeleza ukuze kwaziwe.

Iqanda livela kanye ekujikelezeni okungu-37 ngokwesilinganiso. Ulinda isikhathi esingakanani empeleni, futhi lokho kwenzani kumbheji wokubheja okulingana nemali?

Impendulo emfushane

Ukulinda iqanda kulandela ukusabalala kwe-geometric: isilinganiso singukujikeleza okungu-37, i-median ingu-25, futhi ukulinda okukodwa kokungamashumi amabili kweqa ukujikeleza okungu-110. Eseshinini yokujikeleza okungu-200, umbheji wokubheja okulingana nemali ulindele amaqanda angu-5.4 futhi uzobona noma yimaphi kusuka ku-1 kuya ku-10.

isilinganiso sokulinda

ukujikeleza okungu-37

i-median yokulinda

ukujikeleza okungu-25

p(alikho iqanda ekujikelezeni okungu-100)

6.5%

amaqanda ekujikelezeni okungu-200

5.4 ± 2.3

Inkinga

IqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke → linamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → angu-1/37 ngokujikeleza ngakunye. (a) Ayini amathuba okungabi neqanda ekujikelezeni okungu-37 okulandelayo? (b) Iyini i-median yokulinda? (c) Eseshinini yokujikeleza okungu-200 yokubheja okulingana nemali, umdlali kufanele alindele amaqanda amangaki, futhi buyini ububanzi?

Izixazululo

(a) (36/37)³⁷ = 36.3%. Ngaphezu kwengxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yesikhathi, ukujikeleza okungu-37 kudlula kungavelanga neqanda nhlobo, okuyizibalo ezifanayo nokuthi “okungenani ukushaya okukodwa ku-straight upukubhejaI-straight upInombolo eyodwa, kukhokha u-35:1.Funda konke → ekujikelezeni okungu-37” kungu-63.7% kuphela. (b) Ukulinda u-W kulandela ukusabalala kwe-geometric; p(W > k) = (36/37)ᵏ; i-median ingu-k lapho lokhu kwehla ngaphansi kuka-0.5, okungu-k ≈ 25. Ingxenye yokulinda ingukujikeleza okungu-25 noma ngaphansi kanti enye ingxenye inde kunalokho; isilinganiso esingu-37 sikhushulwa umsila omude. (c) Amaqanda ekujikelezeni okungu-200 alandela ukusabalala kwe-binomial okunesilinganiso esingu-200/37 = 5.4 nokuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okungu-√(200 × (1/37) × (36/37)) ≈ 2.3. Ububanzi obungu-95% cishe busuka ku-1 kuya ku-10.

ukulinda iqandaamathuba

ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-1024.0%

ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-2549.6%

ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-3763.7%

ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-5074.6%

ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-10093.5%

ngaphezu kokujikeleza okungu-110≈ 5%

ngaphezu kokujikeleza okungu-2000.4%

p(W ≤ k) = 1 − (36/37)ᵏ. Isilinganiso 37, i-median 25.

Iqanda libiza malini kumbheji wokubheja okulingana nemali

Iqanda ngalinye libiza inani elilodwa elibhejwayo, futhi amaqanda ayinzuzo yonke yekhasino kokubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke →: ekujikelezeni okungu-37 okumaphakathi ukuwina okungu-18 nokuhlulwa okungu-18 kuyacishana, futhi iqanda elilodwa lingu-−1/37. Eseshinini yokujikeleza okungu-200 ngo-$10, amaqanda angu-5.4 alindelekile abiza u-$54, okungu-200 × $10 / 37 ncamashi. Iseshini enamaqanda angu-2 ibe nenhlanhla enhle engu-$34; iseshini enamaqanda angu-9 ibe nenhlanhla embi engu-$36, futhi izozwakala sengathi ikhohlisiwe. Etafuleni elinomthetho we-La PartageumthethoLa partageUmthetho waseFrance: lapho kuphuma iqanda, uhhafu wenani elibhejwe ekubhejeni okulingana nemali uyabuyiswa. Kwehlisa inzuzo yekhasino kulokho kubheja ngesigamu iye ku-1.35%.Funda konke → iqanda ngalinye libiza ingxenye yenani elibhejwayo futhi izibalo zehla ngesigamu.

Amaqanda eseshinini yokujikeleza okungu-200% wamaseshini

0–1

2.5%

2–3

18%

4–5

34%

6–7

28%

8–9

13%

10 noma ngaphezulu

4.5%

% wamaseshini

01734%

Binomial(200, 1/37). Umbheji wokubomvu ngo-$10 ukhokha u-$10 ngeqanda ngalinye; ukusabalala kwamaqanda kungukusabalala kwentengo yobusuku.

Umthetho we-La Partage ku-roulette Ingabe i-roulette ye-inthanethi iyakhohlisa? Inganekwane

Okulandelayo

Ayini amathuba amaqanda amabili ngokulandelana? (1/37)² = 1/1,369. Ekhasino enamatafula angu-20 ajikeleza izikhathi ezingu-50 ngehora, lokho cishe kuyipheya elilodwa lamaqanda alandelanayo endaweni ethile njalo emva kwamahora angu-1.4. Abadlali abakubonayo bathi isondo liphukile; izibalo zithi kuwuLwesibili nje.

Zama

Isilingisi seseshini ye-roulette sibala amaqanda eseshinini ngayinye. Dlala ukujikeleza okungu-100 izikhathi ezingamakhulu ambalwa bese udweba inani: i-histogram engenhla izovela, nomsila wayo omude ngakwesokudla. Umsila yilapho izindaba zivela khona.

Ifomula

p(W > k) = (36/37)ᵏ

E[W] = 37 · i-median ≈ 25

amaqanda ekujikelezeni okungu-N ~ Binomial(N, 1/37)

Imibuzo

Ingabe iqanda livela kakhulu kwamanye amasondo?

Hhayi esondweni elifanele. Esondweni elichemileilebhuIsondo elichemileIsondo elinamaphutha omzimba enza amanye amagodi abe namathuba angaphezu kuka-1/37. Alivamile, futhi litholakala kuphela ngokujikeleza okuyizinkulungwane okubhaliwe.Funda konke → noma yiliphi igodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → lingavela kakhulu, futhi bekungadinga izinkulungwane zokujikeleza ukuze kwaziwe.

Ingabe kufanele ngibeke ithokheni eqandeni njalo njengomshwalense?

Kungukubheja okungu-2.70% njengakho konke okunye. Kushintsha isimo seseshini (iqanda liba ukuwina) hhayi izindleko.

Kungani i-median incane kunesilinganiso?

Ngoba ukusabalala kokulinda akulingani: ukulinda okufushane okuningi, okumbalwa okude kakhulu.

Okokuhlekisa

$Isilinganiso 37, i-median 25, nomsila omude lapho izinganekwane zihlala khona.$

Isilinganiso 37, i-median 25, nomsila omude lapho izinganekwane zihlala khona.

Imithombo

Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, uhlelo lwesi-3, 1968. Ukuphelelwa yimali komgembuli, isahluko XIV.
Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗