Izibonelo zeseshini · Isibonelo · imizuzu 7

Isibonelo: Ukukhuphuka kwe-Fibonacci

Amanani abhejwayo angu-1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13 kokumnyamaukubhejaMnyamaUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni ezimnyama eziyi-18. NgesiFulentshi: noir.Funda konke →, kuhlehlwa izinyathelo ezimbili ngemuva kokuwina. I-Martingale ehamba kancane, nokuthi iwa layo lifika kanjani.

Impendulo emfushane

Iseshini elingisiwe ye-Fibonacci yokujikeleza okungu-90 ngo-$5 iyunithi. Imijikelezo engamashumi amabili yaphothulwa ngo-$5 ngamunye, nochungechunge olulodwa olubi olwafika enombolweni yesishiyagalolunye yochungechunge (inani elibhejwayo elingu-$170) olwashiya iseshini ilahlekelwe ngu-$340. Inesizotha kunokuphinda kabili kuze kube yilapho ingasenaso.

iyunithi

$5 kokumnyama

uchungechunge

1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34

iwa

inani elibhejwayo elingu-$170 enombolweni yesishiyagalolunye

umphumela

−$340 ekujikelezeni okungu-90

Hamba nochungechunge

Ukuhlulwa kuhambisa isinyathelo esisodwa ngakwesokudla. Ukuwina kubuyisela emuva izinyathelo ezimbili.

okubhejwayo okulandelayo1umphumela kuze kube manje0ukujikeleza0

Amanani abhejwayo nemiphumela kungamayunithi okubheja okuyisisekelo.

Uhlelo

Bheja inombolo yokuqala ye-FibonacciisuFibonacciUkwenyuswa kwenani okulandela uchungechunge 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…: isinyathelo esisodwa phambili ngemuva kokuhlulwa, izinyathelo ezimbili emuva ngemuva kokuwina.Funda konke →, u-$5. Ngemuva kokuhlulwa, iya isinyathelo esisodwa ngakwesokudla ochungechungeni. Ngemuva kokuwina, buyela izinyathelo ezimbili ngakwesobunxele. Umjikelezo uphothulwa lapho sesibuyele ekuqaleni futhi siphambili ngeyunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → elilodwa. Uma kuqhathaniswa ne-MartingaleisuMartingaleUkwenyuswa kwenani okuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye. Bheka isigaba esithi “Amasu okubheja ku-roulette” ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzani nokuthi yini engakwenzi.Funda konke → inani elibhejwayo likhula ngo-×1.6 esikhundleni sika-×2, ngakho iwa likude futhi ukubuyela phezulu kuhamba kancane: ukuwina akuqedi umjikelezo, kumane kuhlehle.

Ukujikeleza 1–40

Imijikelezo eyishumi nanye yaphothulwa, omude kunayo yonke wafika enombolweni yesihlanu ($25). Umjikelezo ngamunye ophothuliwe unika u-$5 ncamashi; ukubhala izibalo kuyajabulisa futhi amanani abhejwayo ahlala emancane. Isamba ngu-+$55. Kuzwakala njenge-Martingale engenalo ukwesaba.

umjikelezouchungechungeamanani abhejwayoisamba

1W5+$5

2H W W5, 5, 5 → uphothuliwe+$5

3H H W H W W5, 5, 10, 5, 5, 5+$5

4H H H W W W5, 5, 10, 15, 5, 5+$5

5–11okuphezulu inombolo ye-5 ($25)≤ 25+$35

ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-40imijikelezo engu-11 iphothuliwe+$55

Ukujikeleza 41–70

Eminye imijikelezo emihlanu iphothulwa ekujikelezeni 60 (+$25). Bese kuba umjikelezo ongaphothuleki. H H H H H H H W H H: amanani abhejwayo 5, 5, 10, 15, 25, 40, 65 (ukuhlulwa okuyisikhombisa, −$165), ukuwina ngo-$105 (+$105, buyela emuva izinyathelo ezimbili ku-$40), bese kuba ukuhlulwa kabili ngo-$40 no-$65. Manje sisenombolweni yesishiyagalombili, u-$105, no-−$165 emjikelezweni, futhi ukuhlulwa okulandelayo kungasiyisa ku-$170, lapho umkhawulo wetafulaitafulaUmkhawulo wetafulaInani elincane nelikhulu kakhulu lokubheja elivunyelwe. Umkhawulo ophezulu yiwona omisa ukwenyuswa kwenani okuphindaphinda kabili.Funda konke → ungu-$200. Isamba kule ngxenye ngu-−$140.

Le seshini nezinye eziyisishiyagalolunye ezifana nayoumphumela uqhathaniswa nesiqalo

amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · okunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo phakathi, amasampula angu-83 afiphele · hambisa phezu kweshadi ukuze ubone ama-quantile ekujikelezeni

p10 −$500
p25 −$500
phakathi −$500
p75 +$390
p90 +$480

amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · i-y-axis inqunyelwe ku-percentile yoku-1–99 (okweqisayo −$500 kuya ku-+$700) · ukujikeleza okungu-500 · isisekelo $5 · okulingana nemali

Ukukhuphuka okuhamba kancane kune-Martingale, iwa eliphakeme nelifika kamuva. Imigqa ewayo, iwela kude, futhi iwa ekujikelezeni okuningana kunokukodwa.

Imikhawulo yetafula ku-roulette

Ukujikeleza 71–90

H H: u-$105 bese kuba u-$170 kulahlekile, futhi umjikelezo usufike ku-−$440. Inani elibhejwayo elilandelayo bekuzoba ngu-$275, ngaphezu komkhawulo, ngakho ekujikelezeni 72 siyawulahla umjikelezo bese siqala kabusha ngo-$5. Lelo yiwa. Ukujikeleza okuyishumi nesishiyagalombili okusele kuphothula eminye imijikelezo emine. Ekugcineni −$340; indawo ephansi kakhulu yemali yokubhejaimaliImali yokubhejaInani lonke lemali ebekelwe ukudlala. Ukuphatha imali yokubheja kusho ukunquma ukuthi ingakanani yayo ozoyibeka engcupheni ekubhejeni ngakunye nasesheshini ngayinye.Funda konke → yayiku-−$360.

Amanani abhejwayo akhula ngokucishe kube ngu-1.6 ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye; esinyathelweni sesishiyagalombili elilandelayo alisangeni ngaphansi komkhawulo.

Izibalo

Isamba esibhejiwe cishe ngu-$1,200 uma kuqhathaniswa no-$450 ngenani elilinganayo. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → ku-$1,200 ngu-$32; u-−$340 owenzekile ucishe ube ukuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okukodwa nengxenye ngaphansi, iseshini embi, futhi uhlobo lweseshini i-Fibonacci elukhiqiza cishe kanye kwezinhlanu kulobu bude. Imijikelezo ephothuliwe yakhokhela u-$5 ngamunye; umjikelezo omubi wabiza imijikelezo engamashumi ayisishiyagalombili nesishiyagalombili yayo.

Lokho okuboniswa yiseshini

I-Fibonacci isabalalisa iwa le-Martingale ekujikelezeni okuningana futhi iliqhubele kude, okwenza iphephe kakhulu futhi ikhohlise kakhulu: uchungechunge lwamanani abhejwayo lubukeka lunengqondo kuze kufike kulelo elingenangqondo. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile kudola ngalinye akushintshi; imali ebhejiweimaliImali yonke ebhejiweInani lonke elibhejwe phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile, kubalwa nemali ewiniwe ephinde yabhejwa. Kubuye kuthiwe: handle, action.Funda konke → eyengeziwe ngenxa yokukhuphuka yilapho imali iya khona.

Imibuzo

Kungani kuhlehlwa izinyathelo ezimbili ngemuva kokuwina?

Ngoba ukuwina enombolweni n kubuyisa okulahlekile ezinombolweni n−1 no-n−2, ezihlanganiswa zilingane nayo. Uchungechunge lwakhelwe lo mthetho.

Ingabe lokhu kuphephile kune-Martingale?

Inani elibhejwayo eliphezulu liphansi enanini elifanayo lokuhlulwa, ngakho yebo, ngomqondo wewa elifika kamuva. Okulindelekile kuyafana ncamashi.

Iyiphi inombolo yokuqala ephula umkhawulo ka-$500?

Eyeshumi nambili ngeyunithi elingu-$5: 5, 5, 10, 15, 25, 40, 65, 105, 170, 275, 445, bese kuba ngu-720.

Okokuhlekisa

Isilinganiso segolide singu-1.618. Inzuzo yekhasino isengu-2.70%.

Imithombo

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗