Izibonelo zeseshini · Isibonelo · imizuzu 7

Isibonelo: Ukusabalalisa kwe-Bond

U-$140 ezinombolweni eziphezulu, u-$50 ku-six line 13–18, u-$10 eqandeni: u-$200 ekujikelezeni ngakunye, izinombolo ezingu-25 zimbozwe. Ukusabalalisa kwe-James Bond ekujikelezeni okungamashumi amabili.

Impendulo emfushane

Iseshini elingisiwe yokujikeleza okungu-20 kokusabalalisa okuthengiswa njengesu le-James Bond. Ukuwina okuyishumi nambili kuka-$80, ukushaya kwe-six line okuthathu kuka-$100, iqanda elilodwa lika-$160, nokuhlulwa okune kuka-$200 ku-1–12. Isamba ngu-+$620, akukaze kulahlekelwe ngaphezu kuka-$40. Ukusabalalisa kumboza cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zesondo. Lapho kuwela enye yezinombolo ezingambozwanga, lonke inani elibhejiwe elingu-$200 liyahamba.

ekujikelezeni ngakunye
$200
kumboza
25 kwangu-37
p(ukuwina)
67.6%
okulindelekile ekujikelezeni ngakunye
−$5.41

Uhlelo

Etafuleni lohlobo lwaseFrance: u-$140 ku-19–36, u-$50 ku-six lineukubhejaI-six lineIzinombolo eziyisithupha emigqeni emibili engomakhelwane, kukhokha u-5:1. NgesiFulentshi: sixain.Funda konke → (izinombolo eziyisithupha) 13–18, u-$10 eqandeniisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke →. Izinombolo ezingamashumi amabili nanhlanu zimboziwe. Inombolo ephezulu ikhokhela u-$140 bese kulahleka u-$60: +$80. Inombolo ye-six line ikhokhela u-$250 bese kulahleka u-$150: +$100. Iqanda likhokhela u-$350 bese kulahleka u-$190: +$160. Noma iyiphi ku-1–12 ilahlekisa konke: −$200. Inani elilindelekileizibaloInani elilindelekileUmphumela ovamile ekubhejeni ngakunye esikhathini eside. U-−1/37 wenani elibhejwayo kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Funda konke → ekujikelezeni ngakunye lingu-(18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, okuyi-2.70% ka-$200. Ukusabalalisa kungukubheja inani elilinganayo kugqoke ingubo yokuzenzisa.

Isu lokubheja inani elingaguquki ku-roulette

Ukujikeleza 1–10

19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Eziphezulu eziyisithupha, i-six line eyodwa, iqanda elilodwa, ukuhlulwa okubili: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Ibhalansi ngu-+$340 ngemuva kokujikeleza okuyishumi, nokujikeleza okubili okuhlulwayo okwathatha u-$200 ngakunye. Iqanda ekujikelezeni 6 lakhokhela u-$160, okuwukuphela kwesikhathi iqanda lazwakala njengomngane.

ukujikelezainomboloumphumelaisambaibhalansi
119phezulu+$80+$80
227phezulu+$80+$160
371–12−$200−$40
433phezulu+$80+$40
515i-six line+$100+$140
60iqanda+$160+$300
723phezulu+$80+$380
831phezulu+$80+$460
9111–12−$200+$260
1029phezulu+$80+$340
Ukujikeleza kwesithupha: ibhola liwela eqandeni, futhi ithokheni lika-$10 elikulo lenza lokho kujikeleza kube phambili ngo-$160.

Ukujikeleza 11–20

5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Ukuhlulwa kabili ekujikelezeni kokuqala okuyisithupha kwabuyisela ibhalansi emuva ku-+$280; bese kuthi eziphezulu ezintathu ne-six line zivala iseshini ku-+$620. Ukujikeleza okungamashumi amabili: eziphezulu ezingu-12, ukushaya kwe-six line oku-3, iqanda eli-1, ukuhlulwa oku-4. Isamba esilindelekile sasingu-−$108; okwenzekile +$620, cishe ukuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okungu-1.2 ngaphezu kokulindelekile, ubusuku obuhle.

Le seshini nezinye eziyisishiyagalolunye ezifana nayoumphumela uqhathaniswa nesiqalo
+$5,500$0−$2,000+$1,640−$1,0000125250375500ukujikelezaumphumela
amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · okunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo phakathi, amasampula angu-82 afiphele · hambisa phezu kweshadi ukuze ubone ama-quantile ekujikelezeni
  • p10 −$2,000
  • p25 −$2,000
  • phakathi −$2,000
  • p75 −$2,000
  • p90 +$780
amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · i-y-axis inqunyelwe ku-percentile yoku-1–99 (okweqisayo −$2,000 kuya ku-+$8,860) · ukujikeleza okungu-500 · isisekelo $200 · Ukusabalalisa kwe-Bond
Ukubheja inani elilinganayo lika-$200 ezinombolweni ezingu-25: ukuwina kuka-$80–$160 cishe ekujikelezeni okubili kokuthathu, ukuhlulwa kuka-$200 ekujikelezeni okukodwa kokuthathu. Umugqa wesilinganiso wehla ngo-−$5.41 ekujikelezeni ngakunye.

Izibalo

Isamba esibhejiwe ngu-$4,000 ekujikelezeni okungamashumi amabili. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → ngu-$108. Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kokujikeleza okukodwa kucishe kube ngu-$135, ngakho ukujikeleza okungamashumi amabili kunokuchezuka okujwayelekile okucishe kube ngu-$605; u-+$620 noma ngaphezulu wubusuku obukodwa kobuyisishiyagalolunye. Ukujikeleza okungamashumi amabili okufanayo ngo-$200 olinganayo kokubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → ngabe kwaba nokulindelekile okufanayo nokusabalalisa okubanzi (σ ≈ $200 ekujikelezeni ngakunye): ukusabalalisa kunokuguquguqukaizibaloUkuguquguqukaIsilinganiso sokuthi imiphumela ihlakazeke kangakanani ezungeze inani elilindelekile. Kuphezulu ku-straight up, kuphansi ekubhejeni okulingana nemali.Funda konke → okuphansi kunalokho kokubheja okulingana nemaliukubhejaUkubheja okulingana nemaliBomvu/mnyama, engalingani/elinganayo, phezulu/phansi. Izinombolo eziyi-18, kukhokha u-1:1.Funda konke → ngoba kuwina kaningi futhi ngamanani amancane.

Lokho okuboniswa yiseshini

Ukusabalalisa kwe-Bond kungukubheja okuthathu okulindelekile kwakho kuhlangana kube ngu-−1/37 wesamba, njengayo yonke inhlanganisela yokubheja okujwayelekile. Isici sakho sangempela ukumboza: izinga lokuwina elingu-67.6% lenza ubusuku buzwakale njengohlelo. I-32.4% yokujikeleza okulahlekelwayo ithatha u-$200 ngakunye, futhi esikhathini eside ithatha ncamashi lokho izibalo ezikushoyo. Naphezu kwegama, akukho kumanoveli ka-Fleming: u-Bond wakhe ubheja amadaziniukubhejaIdazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha u-2:1.Funda konke → amabili. Amapheshana amasu enza okunye.

I-roulette ezincwadiniIsu lamadazini namakholamu ku-roulette

Imibuzo

Ingabe ukusabalalisa kusebenza kangcono nge-la partage?

Ukubheja ezinombolweni eziphezulu kungukubheja okulingana nemali, ngakho etafuleni laseFrance kulahlekelwa ngu-$70 kuphela eqandeni esikhundleni sika-$140, futhi iqanda linika isamba esingu-+$230 esikhundleni sika-+$160. Inzuzo yekhasino ehlanganisiwe cishe ingu-1.8%. Kungcono, kodwa kusengaphansi kweqanda.

Kungani u-$140, u-$50, u-$10?

Lezi zilinganiso zicishe zilinganise ukuwina: $80, $100, $160. Noma yiziphi izilinganiso zinika inzuzo yekhasino efanayo.

Ingabe kungukubheja inani elilinganayo?

Yebo. Ubheja u-$200 ezinombolweni ezingu-25 ezifanayo ekujikelezeni ngakunye. Akukho nenani noma ukukhetha okushintshayo ngemuva kokuwina noma ukuhlulwa.

Okokuhlekisa

Izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zesondo. Ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yesikhathi, konke.

Izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zesondo. Ingxenye eyodwa kwezintathu yesikhathi, konke.

Imithombo

  1. Fleming, I. Casino Royale. Jonathan Cape, 1953. Isahluko 7: u-Bond ubheja amadazini amabili, hhayi lokhu kusabalalisa.
  2. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.
kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗