Izibalo ze-roulette · Inkinga yezibalo · imizuzu 7

Inkinga: Amadazini amabili nethokheni

Amadazini amabili ahlanganisa izinombolo ezingu-24. Engeza ithokheni eqandeni bese uhlanganisa ezingu-25. Ingabe umshwalense uyakhokha?

Impendulo emfushane

Cha. Ingxenye ngayinye ingu-−2.70% wenani layo elibhejwayo, ngakho inhlanganisela ingu-−2.70% wesamba. Le nkinga ichaza ukuthi kungani, ibala ukusabalala okuqondile, futhi ibonise okushintshayo (isimo) nokungashintshi (intengo).

amadazini amabili
24/37 · inzuzo ehlanzekile +1 noma −2
kanye neqanda
25/37 kuhlanganisiwe
i-EV ngeyunithi
−1/37 noma kunjani
isifundo
ama-EV ayahlanganiswa

Inkinga

Ubheja u-$10 edazininiukubhejaIdazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha u-2:1.Funda konke → lokuqala, u-$10 edazinini lesibili no-$1 eqandeniisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke →. (a) Iyini imiphumela engaba khona namathuba ayo? (b) Liyini inani elilindelekileizibaloInani elilindelekileUmphumela ovamile ekubhejeni ngakunye esikhathini eside. U-−1/37 wenani elibhejwayo kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Funda konke →? (c) Ingabe ithokheniimaliIthokheniUphawu olumele inani elinqunyiwe, olubekwa ethebuleni lokubheja ukuze ubheje. Kubuye kuthiwe: check.Funda konke → leqanda liyakuthuthukisa ukubheja?

Isixazululo (a) no-(b)

Imiphumela: ibholaokokusebenzaIbholaIbhola elincane eliphonswa emzileni libheke ngakolunye uhlangothi lwe-rotor. Amabhola esimanje enziwa nge-ivorine noma nge-Teflon, angu-18–21 mm.Funda konke → ku-1–24 (amagodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → angu-24): idazini elilodwa likhokha u-$20, elinye lilahlekelwa u-$10, iqanda lilahlekelwa u-$1: inzuzo ehlanzekile +$9. Ibhola ku-25–36 (amagodi angu-12): womabili amadazini ayahlulwa, neqanda liyahlulwa: −$21. Ibhola eqandeni (igodi elingu-1): amadazini alahlekelwa u-$20, iqanda likhokha u-$35: +$15. EV = (24 × 9 + 1 × 15 − 12 × 21)/37 = (216 + 15 − 252)/37 = −21/37 ≈ −$0.57 ngokujikeleza ngakunye ku-$21 obhejiwe: 2.70%.

umphumelaamagodiamathubaokuphumayo
1–242464.9%+$9
25–361232.4%−$21
012.7%+$15
okulindelekile−$0.57 = 2.70% ka-$21

Isixazululo (c)

Ngaphandle kwethokheni leqanda: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = (240 − 260)/37 = −20/37 ≈ −$0.54 ku-$20 obhejiwe, futhi nalokhu kungu-2.70%. Ithokheni leqanda liguqule umphumela weqanda ongu-−$20 waba ngu-+$15 (ukuthuthuka kuka-$35 kanye kokungu-37, okubiza u-$0.95 ngokujikeleza ngakunye) futhi labiza u-$1 kokunye ukujikeleza okungu-36 (okubiza u-$0.97 ngokujikeleza ngakunye). Ushintsho oluhlanzekile: −$0.03 ngokujikeleza ngakunye, okungu-2.70% wedola elengeziwe. Umshwalense unentengo efana ncamashi nayo yonke enye into.

Kungani lokhu kusebenza yonke indawo

Amanani alindelekile ayahlanganiswa. Noma yiliphi iqoqo lokubheja okwenzeka ngasikhathi sinye line-EV elingana nesamba sama-EV ezingxenye, ngayinye ingu-−1/37 wenani layo elibhejwayo. Ngakho noma iyiphi inhlanganisela ingu-−1/37 wenani lonke elibhejwayo. Ayikho indlela yokuhlela amathokheni ethebuleni lokubhejaokokusebenzaIthebula lokubhejaIgridi yokubheja ephrintiwe etafuleni. Kubuye kuthiwe: itafula, i-felt, indwangu.Funda konke →, noma ngabe maningi kangakanani, ebalekela lokhu; ithuluzi elithi Umakhi wokubheja lizokuqinisekisa lokhu kunoma yiliphi iqoqo ongalibeka. Okushintshwa yizinhlanganisela ukusabalala: ukuthi uwina kangaki, malini, nokuthi isimo esibi kakhulu sibi kangakanani.

U-$21 ofanayo ngezindlela ezintathu: amathuba okuwina nesimo esibi kakhulu
$21 kokubomvu: p(ukuwina)
48.6% · okubi kakhulu −$21
amadazini amabili + iqanda: p(ukuwina)
67.6% · okubi kakhulu −$21
$21 ku-17: p(ukuwina)
2.7% · okubi kakhulu −$21
033.8067.6% · okubi kakhulu −$21
Zontathu zine-EV engu-−$0.57 ngokujikeleza ngakunye. Zehluka kuphela ngesimo.

Okulandelayo okunzima kakhulu

Thola inhlanganisela yokubheja okujwayelekile ehlanganisa zonke izinombolo ezingu-37. Amadazini amathathu ($10 ngalinye) kanye no-$1 eqandeni: noma iyiphi ku-1–36 inikeza inzuzo ehlanzekile engu-−$1 (idazini elilodwa likhokha u-$20, amanye amabili alahlekelwa u-$20, iqanda lilahlekelwa u-$1), kanti iqanda linikeza +$35 − $30 = +$5. EV = (36 × (−1) + 5)/37 = −31/37 ku-$31 obhejiwe: 2.70%. Ungaqinisekisa ukuthi awulokothi umangale, kodwa usakhokha intengo efanayo ngalelo lungelo.

Ifomula

EV(inhlanganisela) = Σ EV(izingxenye) = −(inani lonke elibhejwayo)/37

Imibuzo

Ingabe ikhona inhlanganisela yokubheja enenzuzo yekhasino ephansi?

Cha, etafuleni laseYurophu. Etafuleni laseFrance, ukubheja okulingana nemaliukubhejaUkubheja okulingana nemaliBomvu/mnyama, engalingani/elinganayo, phezulu/phansi. Izinombolo eziyi-18, kukhokha u-1:1.Funda konke → kukodwa kungu-1.35%; ukwengeza noma yini enye kukhuphula inzuzo yekhasino exubile.

Kuthiwani ngokubheja kokubili okubomvu nokumnyama?

Kulahlekelwa u-$1 nge-$1 eqandeni kuphela, akuwini lutho ngenye indlela. I-EV ingu-−2.70% ngaphandle kwenzuzo: okuwukuphela kwenhlanganisela engenasizo nhlobo.

Pho kungani uhlanganisa ukubheja nhlobo?

Ukuze ukhethe isimo seseshini osijabulelayo. Leso yisizathu esifanele futhi siyisona kuphela.

Okokuhlekisa

Umshwalense etafuleni le-roulette ubiza ncamashi lokho owongayo.

Umshwalense etafuleni le-roulette ubiza ncamashi lokho owongayo.

Imithombo

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.
kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗