Izinganekwane · Izinganekwane · imizuzu 6

Inganekwane: Izinombolo sezifanele ukuphuma

“Ishumi nesikhombisa alikaveli ekujikelezeni okungu-150. Isikhathi salo sesifikile.” Akunjalo.

Impendulo emfushane

Inombolo engakaveli isikhathi eside inamathuba afanayo ncamashi ekujikelezeni okulandelayo njenganoma iyiphi enye: 1/37. Inkolelo yokuthi “isikhathi sayo sesifikile” iyiphutha lomgembuli elinebhodi lemiphumela elinamathiselwe kulo.

p(17 elandelayo)

1/37, njalo

p(akukho 17 ekujikelezeni okungu-150)

1.7%

kwenzeka kangaki ndawana thize

njalo njalo

isinqumo

inganekwane

Okushiwoyo

Amakhasino abonisa imiphumela yokugcina engu-20 kuya ku-500 futhi avame ukuphawula izinombolo “ezibandayo” ezingakashayi isikhashana. Abadlali bafunda ibhodi, babone ukuthi u-17 akakaveli ekujikelezeni okungu-150, bese bembheja ngoba kumele ukuthi isikhathi sakhe sesifikile. Umqondo uthi esikhathini eside zonke izinombolo zishaya ku-1/37 wezikhathi, ngakho inombolo esalele emuva kumele ilandele.

Kungani kungalungile

Ukujikeleza ngakunye akuncikile kokunye. IbholaokokusebenzaIbholaIbhola elincane eliphonswa emzileni libheke ngakolunye uhlangothi lwe-rotor. Amabhola esimanje enziwa nge-ivorine noma nge-Teflon, angu-18–21 mm.Funda konke → alazi ukuthi u-17 ubengekho, futhi igodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → linobukhulu obufanayo nobebunjalo. Ingxenye yesikhathi eside isondela ngokuhlanjululwa, hhayi ngokulungiswa: ngemuva kokunye ukujikeleza okungu-10,000 igebe lokujikeleza okungu-150 selincane kangangokuthi alisabalulekile, hhayi ngoba u-17 washaya kaningi ngokwengeziwe kodwa ngoba isampula yakhula. Umthetho wezinombolo ezinkuluizibaloUmthetho wezinombolo ezinkuluIsilinganiso semiphumela ezimele sisondela enanini elilindelekile njengoba inani lemizamo likhula.Funda konke → awudingi ukuthi noma iyiphi inombolo ilandele; udinga kuphela ukuthi ukuguquguquka kwangaphambili kube kuncane uma kuqhathaniswa nesamba.

Inombolo ethile ingabikho kangaki okungenani ekujikelezeni okungu-k%

ukujikeleza okungu-37

36.3%

ukujikeleza okungu-74

13.2%

ukujikeleza okungu-100

6.5%

ukujikeleza okungu-150

1.7%

ukujikeleza okungu-200

0.4%

018.1536.3%

(36/37)ᵏ. Njengoba kunezinombolo ezingu-37 kuwo wonke amasondo kuwo wonke amakhasino, ukungabikho kokujikeleza okungu-150 kwenzeka ndawana thize khona manje.

Kungani kuzwakala kulungile

Ngoba kuzo zonke ezinye izingxenye zempilo, ukungabikho kubikezela ukufika: ibhasi elingakafiki imizuzu engamashumi amabili linamathuba amakhulu okufika emizuzwini emihlanu elandelayo. Lokho kungoba amabhasi anesheduli. I-roulette ayinayo isheduli; inamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke →, futhi amathuba awasona isabelo okumele sigcwaliswe. Lo muzwa ulungile emhlabeni omningi kodwa awulungile esondweni.

Isivivinyo

Bhala phansi izinombolo eziyikhulu “ezibandayo” ezivela emabhodini emiphumela bese ubheja ngayinye ekujikelezeni okungu-37 okulandelayo. Izinga lokushaya lizoba ngu-1/37 ekujikelezeni ngakunye, liyafana nalelo lanoma iyiphi inombolo ekhethwe ngokungahleliwe, kuncane okwengeziwe noma okuncishisiwe ngenxa yomsindo wezibalo. Ibhodi lemiphumela lichaza okwedlule. Alinalo ulwazi lokubikezela esondweni elingachemile, futhi esondweni elichemileilebhuIsondo elichemileIsondo elinamaphutha omzimba enza amanye amagodi abe namathuba angaphezu kuka-1/37. Alivamile, futhi litholakala kuphela ngokujikeleza okuyizinkulungwane okubhaliwe.Funda konke → (okungadinga izinkulungwane zokujikeleza ukuze kuqinisekiswe) izinombolo ezishisayoinganekwaneInombolo eshisayoInombolo evele kaningi kunalokho obekulindelekile muva nje. Esondweni elingenzeleli ayibikezeli lutho.Funda konke →, hhayi ezibandayo, yizo okufanele zibhejwe.

Ubukhulu besampula Imiphumela ye-roulette: Ukufunda ibhodi

Inganekwane ephambene

“Ishumi nesikhombisa liyashisa, libheje” yiphutha elifanayo kodwa uphawu luphendukile. Zombili izinkolelo zinenani elilindelekileizibaloInani elilindelekileUmphumela ovamile ekubhejeni ngakunye esikhathini eside. U-−1/37 wenani elibhejwayo kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Funda konke → elifanayo nelokuvala amehlo ukhombe: −2.70% yenani elibhejwayo. KuMdlalo wokuzama, dlala umlando bese ubala ukuthi inombolo ebandayoinganekwaneInombolo ebandayoInombolo engakaveli ekujikelezeni okuningi. Ayinalo ulwazi mayelana nokujikeleza okuzayo esondweni elingenzeleli.Funda konke → ishaya kangaki ekujikelezeni okungu-37 okulandelayo; impendulo icishe ibe ngu-63.7%, ncamashi njengakunoma iyiphi enye inombolo.

Imibuzo

Ingabe ikhasino ibonisa izinombolo ezibandayo ukuze ikhohlise abadlali?

Iyazibonisa ngoba abadlali bayacela. Ibhodi linembile futhi alisizi ngalutho.

Kuthiwani ngenombolo engakashayi ekujikelezeni okungu-500?

(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: akuvamile, futhi kusengu-1/37 ekujikelezeni okulandelayo. Uma kuqhubeka kwenzeka esondweni elilodwa, lowo ngumbuzo wokuchema, futhi impendulo kungaba ukugwema leyo nombolo.

Ingabe ikhona inombolo okuke kufike isikhathi sayo?

Cha.

Okokuhlekisa

Amathuba awasona isabelo okumele sigcwaliswe.

Imithombo

Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, uhlelo lwesi-3, 1968. Ukuphelelwa yimali komgembuli (gambler’s ruin), isahluko XIV.
Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗