Izibonelo zeseshini · Isibonelo · imizuzu 7

Isibonelo: Uchungechunge lwe-Paroli

Amadola ayishumi kokumnyama, aphindwa kabili ngemuva kokuwina ngakunye, agcinwe ngemuva kokuwina kathathu kulandelana. I-Martingale ehlehlayo, ukujikeleza ngokujikeleza.

Impendulo emfushane

Iseshini elingisiwe ye-Paroli yokujikeleza okungu-80. Ukuhlulwa okuyishumi nantathu ekujikelezeni kokuqala, uchungechunge oluphukile olungamashumi amabili nane, kanye nokuwina kathathu okuphothuliwe okuthathu okwakhokhela u-$70 ngamunye. Isamba ngu-−$160 ngemuva kokuba phambili ngo-$50. Uhlelo olulahlekelwa kaningi futhi luwine ngokungavamile, ngesimo esibikezelwa yizibalo.

isisekelo

$10 kokumnyama

umgomo

ukuwina oku-3 kulandelana

p(kathathu)

11.5%

isamba ngokuwina kathathu ngakunye

+$70

Hamba nohlelo

Ukuwina kudlulela esinyathelweni esilandelayo. Ukuhlulwa, noma ukuwina kwesithathu, kubuyela ekuqaleni.

okubhejwayo okulandelayo1umphumela kuze kube manje0ukujikeleza0

Amanani abhejwayo nemiphumela kungamayunithi okubheja okuyisisekelo.

Uhlelo

Bheja u-$10 kokumnyamaukubhejaMnyamaUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni ezimnyama eziyi-18. NgesiFulentshi: noir.Funda konke →. Ngemuva kokuwina, shiya u-$20 etafuleni. Ngemuva kokuwina okwesibili, shiya u-$40 etafuleni. Ngemuva kokuwina okwesithathu, thatha u-$80 bese uqala futhi ngo-$10. Ukuhlulwa noma kuphi kuqala kabusha ku-$10. Umzamo ngamunye ubeka engozini u-$10 wemali yethu futhi uwina u-$70 uma okumnyama kuvela kathathu kulandelana, okwenzeka ku-(18/37)³ = 11.5% yezikhathi. Silindele cishe uchungechunge olulodwa oluphothuliwe emizamweni eyisishiyagalolunye.

Ukujikeleza 1–25

B M M B B M B M M B M M B B M B 0 M M M M B M M B. Imizamo eyishumi nambili: emine yahlulwa ekujikelezeni kokuqala (−$10 ngamunye, omunye wawo ngenxa yeqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke →), emithathu yahlulwa ekujikelezeni kwesibili (−$10 ngamunye, ngoba u-$20 wawuyimali yekhasino kanye neyethu), emine yahlulwa ekujikelezeni kwesithathu (−$10 ngamunye, ngendlela efanayo), owodwa wokuwina kathathu waphothulwa ekujikelezeni 18–20 (+$70). Isamba ngu-−$40. Uchungechunge oluphothuliwe lwazwakala njengobufakazi. Ukwehluleka okuyishumi nanye kwazwakala kungelutho, futhi yilokho okuyinjongo yalokhu kwakheka.

umzamouchungechungeamanani abhejwayoisamba

1B10−$10

2M M B10, 20, 40−$10

3B10−$10

4M B10, 20−$10

5M M B10, 20, 40−$10

6–9M M B · B · M B · 0≤ 40−$40

10M M M10, 20, 40 → kuthathwa u-$80+$70

11–12M B · M M B≤ 40−$20

ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-25imizamo engu-12, ukuwina kathathu oku-1−$40

Ukuwina kathathu okukodwa okuphothuliwe kuzwakala njengobufakazi; amathokheni ayishumi nanye alahleke endleleni azwakala engelutho.

Ukujikeleza 26–55

Ukuwina kathathu okubili okwengeziwe, ekujikelezeni 28–30 naku-37–39, ngakunye kuyingxenye yochungechunge lwezinombolo ezimnyama ezine esalukhipha ngemuva kwezintathu: inombolo emnyama yesine yawina u-$10 omusha futhi inombolo ebomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → elandelayo yathatha u-$20. Imizamo eyishumi nanhlanu, isamba kule ngxenye +$10; isamba esiqhubekayo −$30; okuphezulu kakhulu +$50 ekujikelezeni 39. Ukuwina kathathu okuthathu emizamweni engu-27 kuyi-3.1 elindelekile; esiqongweni iseshini iphambili ngo-$50 futhi izwakala njengendlela yokuwina.

Le seshini nezinye eziyisishiyagalolunye ezifana nayoumphumela uqhathaniswa nesiqalo

amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · okunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo phakathi, amasampula angu-82 afiphele · hambisa phezu kweshadi ukuze ubone ama-quantile ekujikelezeni

p10 −$780
p25 −$510
phakathi −$210
p75 +$90
p90 +$370

amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · i-y-axis inqunyelwe ku-percentile yoku-1–99 (okweqisayo −$1,000 kuya ku-+$1,570) · ukujikeleza okungu-500 · isisekelo $10 · okulingana nemali

Imigqa eminingi yehla kancane ngezinyathelo zika-$10 bese yeqa phezulu ngo-$70 ngezikhathi ezithile. Isilinganiso salezi eziyishumi siyisilinganiso somuntu obheja inani elilinganayo: −2.70% kwakho konke okubhejiwe.

Ukujikeleza 56–80

Imizamo eyishumi nantathu ehlulwayo kulandelana, eyisishiyagalolunye yayo ekujikelezeni kwesibili noma kwesithathu lapho uchungechunge lwaphela lusalela izinombolo ezimnyama eyodwa noma ezimbili. Isamba ngu-−$130 kule ngxenye; ekugcineni −$160. Uchungechunge lokwehluleka lunamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → acishe abe ngu-20%, okusho ukuthi luzokwenzeka kumdlali we-ParoliisuParoliUkwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuwina: phinda kabili ngemuva kokuwina, buyela ekuqaleni ngemuva kokuhlulwa noma ngemuva kokuwina kathathu kulandelana. Kubuye kuthiwe: i-Martingale ephambene.Funda konke → cishe njalo eseshinini yesihlanu yalobu bude.

Izibalo

Isamba esibhejiwe ngu-$1,460 ekujikelezeni okungu-80 uma kuqhathaniswa no-$800 womuntu obheja u-$10 olinganayo njalo: ukushiya imali etafuleni kwengeza imali ebhejiweimaliImali yonke ebhejiweInani lonke elibhejwe phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile, kubalwa nemali ewiniwe ephinde yabhejwa. Kubuye kuthiwe: handle, action.Funda konke →. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → ku-$1,460 ngu-$39; u-−$160 owenzekile ungaphansi kokuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okukodwa, akumangalisi. Umuntu obheja inani elilinganayo eceleni kwethu wayenokulindelekile okufanayo kudola ngalinye nomphumela onokuguquguquka okucishe kube yingxenye yalokho.

Isu lokubheja inani elingaguquki ku-roulette

Lokho okuboniswa yiseshini

I-Paroli iyi-MartingaleisuMartingaleUkwenyuswa kwenani okuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye. Bheka isigaba esithi “Amasu okubheja ku-roulette” ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzani nokuthi yini engakwenzi.Funda konke → ephendukezelwe: ilahlekelwa iyunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → elilodwa esikhathini esiningi futhi iwine amayunithi ayisikhombisa ngezikhathi ezithile, esikhundleni sokuwina iyunithi elilodwa esikhathini esiningi nokulahlekelwa amayunithi angamashumi ayisithupha nantathu ngezikhathi ezithile. Ukusabalalisa akunangozi kangako ngoba inombolo enkulu ingukuwina, hhayi ukulahlekelwa, futhi inani elibhejwayo alikaze lidlule u-$40 lapho kuphela u-$10 oyimali yethu. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile kudola ngalinye akushintshi. Wuhlelo olungcono kumdlali ofuna ukuguquguqukaizibaloUkuguquguqukaIsilinganiso sokuthi imiphumela ihlakazeke kangakanani ezungeze inani elilindelekile. Kuphezulu ku-straight up, kuphansi ekubhejeni okulingana nemali.Funda konke → ngaphandle kwewa, kodwa lusabiza i-2.70% yemali ebhejiwe.

Imibuzo

Kungani ugcina ngemuva kokuthathu hhayi kokune?

Okune kulandelana kungu-5.6% futhi kukhokhela u-$150. Umgomo umane uwukunambitha; inzuzo yekhasino iyafana kuyo yonke imigomo.

Ingabe imali yekhasino ngempela ingeyekhasino?

Cha. Ngemuva kokuwina okukodwa u-$20 osetafuleni ungowakho. I-Paroli izwakala ingabizi ngoba ukulahlekelwa yimali oyishiye etafuleni akubukeki njengokulahlekelwa yimali yakho. Kodwa kunjalo.

Ingabe i-Paroli ingcono kune-Martingale?

Okulindelekile okufanayo, inani elibhejwayo eliphezulu elincane, alikho iwa lomkhawulo wetafula. Ingcono ngazo zonke izindlela ngaphandle kwaleyo ebalulekile, engashintshi.

Okokuhlekisa

Lahlekelwa okuncane kaningi, wina okukhulu ngokungavamile. Okuphambene ne-Martingale, nentengo efanayo.

Imithombo

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.

kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗