Isu le-D'Alembert ku-roulette
Isu le-D’Alembert ku-roulette lengeza iyunithi elilodwa ngemuva kokuhlulwa futhi lisuse elilodwa ngemuva kokuwina.
Alilehluli isondo. Liyindlela yokwenyuswa kwenaniisuUkwenyuswa kwenaniNoma yimuphi umthetho oshintsha inani elibhejwayo ngokusekelwe emiphumeleni yangaphambili. Ukwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuhlulwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kokulahlekelwa, ukwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kokuwina.Funda konke → evamile ethambe kunazo zonke: amanani abhejwayo akhuphuka kancane, ukwehla kwemali kumaphakathi, futhi inzuzo yekhasino ayithintwa.
Hamba nohlelo
Ukuhlulwa kunyusa isinyathelo esisodwa. Ukuwina kubuyisela emuva isinyathelo esisodwa.
Amanani abhejwayo nemiphumela kungamayunithi okubheja okuyisisekelo.
Uhlelo lwe-D’Alembert ku-roulette, isinyathelo ngesinyathelo
Bheja iyunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → elilodwa. Uma uhlulwa, ukubheja okulandelayo kukhulu ngeyunithi elilodwa. Uma uwina, kuncane ngeyunithi elilodwa, kodwa kungalokothi kwehle ngaphansi kweyunithi elilodwa. Yilokho kuphela. Cabanga ngepulangwe lezingane elikhuphukayo nelehlayo (i-seesaw): konke ukuhlulwa kukhuphula inani elibhejwayo ngesinyathelo esisodwa futhi konke ukuwina kuyalibuyisela phansi. Inkolelo engaphansi kwalokho ithi ukuwina nokuhlulwa kuzolingana, ngakho inani elibhejwayo lizobuyela esisekelweni. Okuhehayo ukuthi wonke amapheya okuwina okukodwa nokuhlulwa okukodwa emananini abhejwayo alandelanayo anikeza umphumela ohlanzekile ongu-+1 iyunithi: ulahlekelwa ngu-3, uwina u-4, umphumela ohlanzekile ungu-+1.
Iseshini ibukeka kanjani?
Imnene, inenani elibhejwayo elikhuphuka kancane. Njengoba ukuhlulwa kudlula ukuwina ngo-19 ku-18 ekubhejeni okulingana nemali, inani elibhejwayo likhuphuka kancane eseshinini ende. Ngoba inani elibhejwayo liphezulu kakhulu uma ubulokhu uhlulwa, futhi liphansi uma uwina, inani elibhejwayo lesilinganiso ngezikhathi zokuhlulwa lidlula elesilinganiso ngezikhathi zokuwina. Amaseshini ahamba kahle kune-MartingaleisuMartingaleUkwenyuswa kwenani okuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye. Bheka isigaba esithi “Amasu okubheja ku-roulette” ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzani nokuthi yini engakwenzi.Funda konke →, nokwehla kwemaliimaliUkwehla kwemaliUkwehla kusukela ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu lemali yokubheja kuya ezingeni eliphansi elilandelayo phakathi neseshini. Ukwehla okukhulu kakhulu (maximum drawdown) kuwukwehla okukhulu kunakho konke okunjalo.Funda konke → okumaphakathi futhi angenalo iwa, futhi alahlekelwa kancane ngaphezu kokubheja inani elingaguqukiisuUkubheja ngenani elilodwaUkubheja inani elifanayo kukho konke ukujikeleza. Isisekelo okuqhathaniswa naso konke ukwenyuswa kwenani.Funda konke → ngokwesilinganiso ngoba inani elibhejwayo lesilinganiso liphezulu.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- phakathi −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Ingabe uhlelo lwe-D’Alembert luyasebenza?
Cha. Iseshini elinganayo iyawina, kodwa amaseshini awahlali elingana. Ngemuva kokuwina okungu-w nokuhlulwa okungu-l emananini abhejwayo alandelanayo umphumela ohlanzekile ungu-w − l amayunithi kanye nokulungiswa okuya ngokuthi ubukuphi esitebhisini. Uma w = l umphumela ungu-+w amayunithi ncamashi, okubukeka njengenzuzo eqinisekisiwe. Inkinga ukuthi w = l akusona isimo esilindelekile: ekujikelezeni okungu-37 ulindela ukuwina okungu-18 nokuhlulwa okungu-19. Ukuhlulwa okukodwa okwengeziwe enanini elibhejwayo eselikhuphukele, ake sithi, emayunithini angu-8 kubiza ngaphezu kwalokho okwenziwe ngamapheya ayisishiyagalombili angu-+1. Okulindelekile kuphuma ku-−1/37 wemali yonke ebhejiweimaliImali yonke ebhejiweInani lonke elibhejwe phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile, kubalwa nemali ewiniwe ephinde yabhejwa. Kubuye kuthiwe: handle, action.Funda konke →, njengoba kufanele.
Kungani amaseshini amafushane evamise ukuwina?
Isimo esilinganayo siyingxenye yomthetho owodwa ohlanganisa yonke iseshini. Ake sithi u-D yinani lokuhlulwa kususwe inani lokuwina. Iseshini yokujikeleza okungu-N eqala ngeyunithi elilodwa iphela ku-(N − D²)/2 − D amayunithi, uma nje kungekho ukubheja kweyunithi elilodwa okuwinayo (ngemuva kokuwina okunjalo inani elibhejwayo alinandawo ephansi yokuya kuyo). Uma D = 0 lokho kungu-+N/2, okungu-+w wesigaba esingenhla. Ukuhlulwa ngakunye okwengeziwe kubalwa ngesikwele: ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-100 u-D ongu-4 usashiya u-+38 amayunithi, u-D ongu-8 ushiya u-+10, futhi u-D ongu-10 ushiya u-−10. Ithuba lodwa lisabalalisa u-D cishe ngo-√N, okuyishumi ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-100, futhi emdlalweni ongenalo iqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke → inzuzo yamaseshini amaningi alinganayo nokulahlekelwa kwalawo ambalwa angalingani kuyacimana ncamashi. Iqanda lengeza ukuhlulwa okukodwa okwengeziwe ekujikelezeni okungu-37 ngokwesilinganiso, futhi ngoba u-D ubalwa ngesikwele izindleko zakhe zikhula ngokushesha kuneseshini. Amaseshini amaningi okujikeleza okufika ku-100 aphela usaphambili; isilinganiso asisoze saphela kanjalo, futhi ngemuva kokujikeleza okungamakhulu ambalwa amaseshini amaningi nawo ayalahlekelwa.
Kuthiwani uma ulihlehlisa?
I-Contra-D’Alembert, ebizwa nangokuthi i-D’Alembert ehlehlayo, yengeza iyunithi ngemuva kokuwina futhi isuse elilodwa ngemuva kokuhlulwa. Ilingisa uhlelo lokuqala ncamashi ngokuhlehla. Uma nje kungekho ukubheja kweyunithi elilodwa okuhlulwayo, iseshini yokujikeleza okungu-N iphela ku-(D² − N)/2 + D amayunithi, lapho u-D manje eyinani lokuwina kususwe ukuhlulwa. Iseshini elinganayo ilahlekelwa yisigamu seyunithi ngokujikeleza ngakunye, futhi uchungechunge lokuwina oludlula kakhulu ukuhlulwa kuphela olungaletha inzuzo. Ngakho amaseshini amaningi alahlekelwa kancane kanti ambalwa awina kakhulu, okuphambene nokwakheka kohlelo lokuqala, futhi isilinganiso siwu-2.70% ofanayo wemali ebhejiwe.
Wayengubani u-d’Alembert?
U-Jean le Rond d’Alembert, isazi sezibalo nomhleli ohlanganyelwe we-Encyclopédie, waphikisa esihlokweni sango-1754 ngokuthi ngemuva kochungechunge lwamakhanda, imisila iba namathuba amakhulu. Wayenephutha, futhi iphutha elibizwa ngegama lakhe liwuhlobo lwephutha lomgembuli. Uhlelo lwe-D’Alembert ku-roulette laqanjwa ngaye kamuva, ngabagembuli ababehlanganyela le nkolelo. Akaluklamanga futhi cishe wayengeke aluseke.
Ingabe zikhona ezinye izinhlobo?
I-Contra-D’Alembert, engenhla, iziphatha njenge-ParoliisuParoliUkwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuwina: phinda kabili ngemuva kokuwina, buyela ekuqaleni ngemuva kokuhlulwa noma ngemuva kokuwina kathathu kulandelana. Kubuye kuthiwe: i-Martingale ephambene.Funda konke → emnene. Abanye abadlali bengeza amayunithi amabili ngemuva kokuhlulwa bese besusa elilodwa ngemuva kokuwina, okwenza isitebhisi sibe mqansa sisondele endaweni ye-Martingale. Zonke izinhlobo zinikeza ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → okufanayo ngeyunithi ngayinye ebhejiwe.
Isilingisi · D'Alembert
Amaseshini angu-2,000 okubheja okulingana nemali, kuqalwa ngemali yokubheja engu-$1,000.
Ukubheja okuyisisekelo $10 · umkhawulo wetafula $500 · ukujikeleza okungu-100 ngeseshini
Uchungechunge lokuhlulwa luza kangaki
Ukubheja okulingana nemali esondweni elineqanda elilodwa kuhlulwa ekujikelezeni okungu-19 kwangu-37. Umugqa ngamunye ungamathuba okuthi uchungechunge oluthile lokujikeleza luhlulwe lonke, nokuthi umdlali we-D’Alembert, owengeza ukubheja okukodwa okuyisisekelo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye, usuvele ulahlekelwe yimali engakanani ngaleso sikhathi.
| ukuhlulwa ngokulandelana | amathuba | cishe 1 kwangu- | okulahlekile kuze kube manje | ukubheja okulandelayo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye ngokuhlulwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikelezeni okuthile okukodwa. Iseshini ende inokujikeleza okuningi lapho uchungechunge olunjalo lungaqala khona, ngakho ebusuku bonke lungenzeka kakhulu kunalokho okuphakanyiswa umugqa owodwa.
Imibuzo
Ayinalo iwa, okwenza ibe yindlela yokwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuhlulwa emnene kunazo zonke. Ayishibhile kunokubheja inani elingaguquki; ibiza kancane ngaphezulu.
Umkhawulo wetafulaitafulaUmkhawulo wetafulaInani elincane nelikhulu kakhulu lokubheja elivunyelwe. Umkhawulo ophezulu yiwona omisa ukwenyuswa kwenani okuphindaphinda kabili.Funda konke → kuphela noma imali yakho yokubhejaimaliImali yokubhejaInani lonke lemali ebekelwe ukudlala. Ukuphatha imali yokubheja kusho ukunquma ukuthi ingakanani yayo ozoyibeka engcupheni ekubhejeni ngakunye nasesheshini ngayinye.Funda konke →. Eseshinini ende yokuhlulwa likhuphuka njalo.
Ubumnandi bezibalo
Zama lezi ngokwakho kuqala. Isixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule uma usukulungile.
Udlala uhlelo lwe-D’Alembert ku-bomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → ekujikelezeni okungu-50, uqala ngeyunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → elilodwa, futhi awuwini neze ukubheja kweyunithi elilodwa (ngemuva kokuwina okunjalo inani elibhejwayo belingenandawo ephansi yokuya kuyo). Uqeda ngokuhlulwa okungu-27 nokuwina okungu-23. Usuphambili noma usemuva ngamayunithi amangaki? Futhi ngokuhlulwa okungu-29 nokuwina okungu-21?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo +13 amayunithi ngokuhlulwa okungu-27, −15 amayunithi ngokungu-29. Ukujikeleza okubili kokungamashumi amahlanu okuhamba ngenye indlela kubiza amayunithi angu-28.
Biza u-D ukuhlulwa kususwe ukuwina. Umphumela ungu-(N − D²)/2 − D ekujikelezeni okungu-N. Ngokuhlulwa okungu-27 nokuwina okungu-23, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Ngokungu-29 nokungu-21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Kungani umthetho usebenza: inani elibhejwayo lihlala liyiyunithi elilodwa kanye nokuhlulwa kuze kube manje kususwe ukuwina kuze kube manje. Ukuhlulwa ngakunye okukhanselwa ukuwina kamuva kwenza ipheya, hlulwa ngo-s bese uwina ngo-s + 1, okuletha iyunithi elingu-+1, njengoba ithebula elingenhla libonisa. Ekujikelezeni okungu-N, kwakheka amapheya angu-(N − D)/2 anjalo, aletha u-+(N − D)/2. Ukuhlulwa okungu-D okusele kwabekwa ngamanani angu-1, 2 … D endleleni ekhuphukayo futhi akuzange kukhanselwe; kubiza u-1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Konke ndawonye: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Isikwele siyindaba yonke. Iseshini elinganayo ikhokha ingxenye yeyunithi ekujikelezeni ngakunye, futhi zonke izinyathelo zokusuka ekulinganeni zibiza ngaphezu kwesandulele.
Udlala uhlelo lwe-D’Alembert oluphambene kokubomvu ekujikelezeni okungu-100, uqala ngeyunithi elilodwa, futhi akukho kubheja kweyunithi elilodwa okuke kuhlulwe. Uqeda ngokuwina okungu-52 nokuhlulwa okungu-48. Umi kuphi? Futhi ngokuwina okungu-60 nokuhlulwa okungu-40?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo −38 amayunithi ngokuwina okungu-52, +170 ngokungu-60. Ukuhola okuncane ekuwineni kusalahlekelwa; kukhokha kuphela ukuhola okukhulu.
Biza u-D ukuwina kususwe ukuhlulwa. Umphumela ungu-(D² − N)/2 + D ekujikelezeni okungu-N.
Ukuwina okungu-52 nokuhlulwa okungu-48: D = 4, ngakho (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
Ukuwina okungu-60 nokuhlulwa okungu-40: D = 20, ngakho (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Kungani: ukuwina ngakunye okukhanselwa ukuhlulwa kamuva kwenza ipheya, wina ngo-s bese uhlulwa ngo-s + 1, okuletha −1. Ukuwina okungu-D okusele kwabekwa ngamanani angu-1, 2 … D endleleni ekhuphukayo futhi akukaze kukhanselwe; kuletha u-D(D + 1)/2. Ekujikelezeni okungu-N, kwakheka amapheya angu-(N − D)/2, ngakho isamba singu-D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Kungumthetho wohlelo lwe-D’Alembert lwangempela nezimpawu ziguqulwe: lapho, ukulingana kuwina ingxenye yeyunithi ekujikelezeni ngakunye kanti ukungalingani kuyajeziswa; lapha, ukulingana kubiza ingxenye yeyunithi ekujikelezeni ngakunye kanti ukungalingani kuyaklonyeliswa.
Okokuhlekisa
Liqanjwe ngesazi sezibalo esenza iphutha ngohlamvu lwemali.
Imithombo
- RouletteDoc. Incazelo yesu nezibonelo.
- Roulette77. Incazelo yesu nezibonelo.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.