Ukubaluleka kwesitatistiki
“Okubalulekile” kusho okungalindelekile esondweni elingachemile, hhayi “okwangempela” futhi hhayi “okunenzuzo”.
I-p-value engu-0.05 isho ukuthi isondo elingachemile lingakhiqiza iphethini engalingani kangaka kanye ezikhathini ezingamashumi amabili. Uma ubheka amasondo angamashumi amabili, elilodwa lizophumelela ngengozi.
Iyini i-p-value
AmathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → okubona ukuchezuka okungenani okukhulu njengalokho okubonwe, uma isondo belingachemile. Kuyisitatimende mayelana nedatha ngaphansi kokucabanga okuthile, hhayi mayelana nesondo. I-p-valueilebhuI-p-valueAmathuba okubona ukuchezuka okungenani okukhulu njengalokho okubonwe uma isondo belingenzeleli.Funda konke → engu-0.03 ithi: isondo elingachemile likwenza lokhu ku-3% wezikhathi. Ayisho ukuthi: kunethuba elingu-97% lokuthi isondo lichemile. Isitatimende sesibili besingadinga ukwazi ukuthi amasondo achemileilebhuIsondo elichemileIsondo elinamaphutha omzimba enza amanye amagodi abe namathuba angaphezu kuka-1/37. Alivamile, futhi litholakala kuphela ngokujikeleza okuyizinkulungwane okubhaliwe.Funda konke → avame kangakanani kwasekuqaleni, futhi ekhasino lanamuhla ayivelakancane kakhulu, okwenza umphumela owodwa obalulekile ube nethuba elikhulu kakhulu lokuba yinhlanhla nje kunokuba yinto etholakele.
Ukuqhathanisa okuningi
Ukuhlolwa ngakunye okwenza esondweni elingachemile kunethuba elingu-5% lokuphumelela ezingeni elingu-5%. Hlola amasondo angamashumi amabili, elilodwa liyaphumelela. Hlola isondo elilodwa ezikhathini ezingamashumi amabili ezihlukene, esisodwa siyaphumelela. Hlola isampula eyodwa ngokuqoqwa kwamagodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → okungu-37, ukuqoqwa kwezigabaisondoIsigabaIngxenye eqhubekayo yamagodi alandelanayo esondweni, ehlukile eqenjini lezinombolo ethebuleni lokubheja.Funda konke → okuyisithupha nokuqoqwa kwemibala okuthathu, futhi okuthile kuzophumelela. Ikhambi ukunquma ukuhlolwa ngaphambi kokubheka idatha, ukwenze kanye, bese uqinisekisa ngedatha entsha. Ukuhlola okuningi okuthola isondo “elichemile” ngokuvamile yikho okukhiqize umphumela.
Ukubaluleka uma kuqhathaniswa nobukhulu
Isampula enkulu kakhulu ingenza ukuchema okuncane kakhulu kube okubalulekile. Igodi elishaywa ku-1/36.5 esikhundleni sika-1/37 liyiphutha langempela elingafinyelela ukubaluleka ekujikelezeni okuyizigidi ezimbalwa futhi lisazokwenza ulahlekelwe yimali enkokhelweniimaliInkokheloLokho ukubheja okuwinile okubuyisayo, okushiwo ngokuthi “X ku-1” ngaphezu kwenani elibhejiwe elibuyiswayo.Funda konke → engu-35 ku-1. Okubalulekile kumdlali wubukhulu bomthelela: ingabe likhona igodi elishaywa ku-1/36 noma ngcono, futhi ngokungakanani? I-chi-square ikutshela ngesondo; izinga lokushaywa kuphela elikutshela ngokubheja.
Amandla okuthola
Elinye iphutha ukungakuboni ukuchema okukhona. Ngokujikeleza okungu-1,000, igodi elishaywa ku-1/30 (ukuchema okukhulu kakhulu) litholakala cishe ingxenye yezikhathi kuphela ezingeni elingu-5%. Ubukhulu besampula, hhayi ubuhlakani, yibona obulungisa lokhu. Ikhasi elithi Ubukhulu besampula linikeza izinombolo.
Izinga elisebenzayo
Ukuze isimangalo sokuchema sithakazelise: ukuhlolwa okukhethwe kusengaphambili, p < 0.01 esikhundleni sika-0.05, ukuphinda esampuleni ezimele yobukhulu obufanayo, kanye nezinga lokushaywa elilinganisiwe emagodini athandwayo elingu-1/34 noma ngcono ngemva kokuphinda. Lelo zinga lifinyelelwe izikhathi ezimbalwa nje emlandweni womdlalo futhi alikaze, ngokwalokho okuboniswa amarekhodi omphakathi, lifinyelelwe esondweni lanamuhla elinakekelwayo.
Imibuzo
Kungumkhuba kusukela ngama-1920. Akukho okukhethekile ngawo; u-0.01 uyizinga elinengqondo kakhulu lapho uhlola amasondo amaningi.
Mhlawumbe alikhiqizi imiphumela elinganayo. Kungaba ngumthelela we-croupier, iphutha lokubhala noma inkinga yokufaka idatha. Phinda.
Cha. Ukutshela ukuthi ukusabalala akulungile. Ukuhlaziywa kwezigaba nobukhulu bomthelela kukutshela ukuthi kuphi.
Ubumnandi bezibalo
Zama lezi ngokwakho kuqala. Isixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule uma usukulungile.
Esondweni elibikiwe elinamaqanda amabili (iqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke → eliphindiwe), idaziniukubhejaIdazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha u-2:1.Funda konke → lokuqala laphuma izikhathi ezingu-742 ekujikelezeni okungu-3,000. Lokho kungu-ukuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okungakanani ngaphansi kwesilinganiso, futhi isondo elilungile belingakwenza kangaki?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo Cishe ukuchezuka okujwayelekile okungu-8.1 ngaphansi. Isondo elilungile belingakwenza cishe kanye emizameni engu-3 × 10¹⁵, okusho ukuthi neze. Impendulo enyatheliswe nombuzo ithi u-11.75; thina sithola u-8.07.
Idazini lokuqala liqukethe amagodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → angu-12 kwangu-38. Ekujikelezeni okungu-3,000 linesilinganiso sokuphuma okungu-3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4, nokusabalala okungu-√(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
U-742 ungu-205.4 ngaphansi kwesilinganiso: 205.4/25.5 = 8.07 wokusabalala.
Isondo elilungile lisilela ngokusabalala okuthathu cishe kanye emizameni engu-740; ngokusabalala okuyisishiyagalombili, cishe kanye ku-3 × 10¹⁵ (ijika lensimbi, uhlangothi olulodwa). Ukucabangela ukuthi umfundi uqaphele elibi kakhulu kumadazini amathathu akushintshi lutho olubalulekile. Umphumela onjengalona usho ukuthi isondo, noma ukubala, akulungile. Esondweni elineqanda elilodwa ukubala okufanayo bekungaba ngu-9.0 wokusabalala ngaphansi (isilinganiso 973.0, ukusabalala 25.6).
Okokuhlekisa
Elilodwa emasondweni angamashumi amabili angachemile “libalulekile”. Yilokho okushiwo yileyo nombolo.
Imithombo
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, imibuzo nge-roulette.