Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile ku-roulette
Ukuchezuka okujwayelekile ku-roulette, okuyimpande yesikwele yokuguquguqukaizibaloUkuguquguqukaIsilinganiso sokuthi imiphumela ihlakazeke kangakanani ezungeze inani elilindelekile. Kuphezulu ku-straight up, kuphansi ekubhejeni okulingana nemali.Funda konke →, yibanga elijwayelekile phakathi komphumela nalokho okulindelekile.
Nge-$1 ebhejiwe, u-σ ungu-5.84 ku-straight up no-1.00 kokubomvu. Phindaphinda ngenani elibhejwayo nangempande yesikwele yenani lokujikeleza ukuze uthole iseshini.
Umthetho olula
Cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zamaseshini ziphela ngaphakathi kuka-σ owodwa walokho okulindelekile, futhi u-95% ngaphakathi kwamabili. Ekujikelezeni okungu-100 okubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → ngo-$10 (okulindelekile kungu-−$27, σ = $100) iningi lamaseshini liphakathi kuka-−$127 no-+$73, futhi cishe wonke aphakathi kuka-−$227 no-+$173. Umphumela ongaphandle kwalelo banga awubufakazi bento ngaphandle kokuthi iseshini eyodwa kwangamashumi amabili iyakwenza lokho.
Kungani √N
Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → kukhula ngokulingana no-N; ukusabalala kukhula ngokulingana no-√N. Uma u-N emncane ukusabalala kuyabusa futhi amaseshini afana nokuphonsa uhlamvu lwemali okuchemile kancane. Uma u-N emkhulu ukulahlekelwa kudlula ukusabalala. Iphuzu lokuwela, lapho ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile kulingana nokuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okukodwa, liku-N = (σ/inzuzo yekhasino)² = (1/0.027)² ≈ ukujikeleza okungu-1,370 ekubhejeni okulingana nemali no-(5.84/0.027)² ≈ 46,800 ku-straight upukubhejaI-straight upInombolo eyodwa, kukhokha u-35:1.Funda konke →. Ngaphansi kwalawo manani, kunquma inhlanhla; ngaphezu kwawo, kunquma inzuzo yekhasino.
Ukukusebenzisa
Ukuze wahlulele ukuthi iseshini ibingajwayelekile yini, bala u-(umphumela − EV)/σ. Obheja u-$10 kokubomvu oqeda ukujikeleza okungu-100 ngo-+$150 useku-(150 + 27)/100 = 1.77σ, umphumela owodwa ku-25: unenhlanhla, akuyona into emangalisayo. Obheja i-straight up oqeda nge-+$150 efanayo useku-0.3σ: ubusuku obujwayelekile. Umphumela ofanayo ngamadola usho izinto ezehlukene ekubhejeni okuhlukene.
Iphutha elijwayelekile lengxenye
Izibalo ezifanayo zikutshela ukuthi kudingeka ukujikeleza okungakanani ukuze ubone inzuzo yekhasino kudatha. Iphutha elijwayelekile lengxenye yokuwina ebonakele lingu-√(p(1 − p)/N). Kokubomvu no-N = 1,000: √(0.4865 × 0.5135 / 1000) ≈ 1.6%. Igebe phakathi kohlamvu lwemali olunobulungiswa nokubomvu lingu-1.35%, ngakho ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-1,000 namanje awukwazi ukuzehlukanisa ngokuqiniseka. Ngemuva kokungu-10,000 iphutha elijwayelekile lingu-0.5% futhi uyakwazi. Yingakho futhi ukuthola ukuchema kwesondo kudinga ukujikeleza okuningi kangaka.
Isexwayiso ngokuchema kokusabalala
Imiphumela ye-straight up ikude kakhulu nokusabalala okujwayelekile (normal) eseshini emfushane: iningi lamaseshini liwukulahlekelwa okuqhubekayo kuka-−$10 ekujikelezeni ngakunye nokugxuma kuka-+$350 ngezikhathi ezithile. Umthetho we-±1σ uchaza ukusabalala kahle kodwa isimo kabi kuze kube u-N usemakhulwini. Ekubhejeni okulingana nemaliukubhejaUkubheja okulingana nemaliBomvu/mnyama, engalingani/elinganayo, phezulu/phansi. Izinombolo eziyi-18, kukhokha u-1:1.Funda konke → ukulinganisela okujwayelekile kuhle kusukela cishe ekujikelezeni okungu-30.
Ifomula
Imibuzo
Kuwubufakazi bokuthi udlale cishe amaseshini angu-40, noma ubuseseshini leyo eyodwa enenhlanhla kwezingamashumi amane. Phinda ukwenze.
Sishintshashintsha kancane njalo: iphutha elijwayelekile lesilinganiso lingu-σ/√N. Uma u-N = 10,000 lingu-1% wenani elibhejwayo.
Ubumnandi bezibalo
Zama lezi ngokwakho kuqala. Isixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule uma usukulungile.
Ekujikelezeni okungu-100 kwesondo laseYurophu, iyunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → elilodwa ku-bomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → liphambili uma linokuwina okungu-51 okungenani, kanti iyunithi elilodwa ku-straight upukubhejaI-straight upInombolo eyodwa, kukhokha u-35:1.Funda konke → liphambili uma inombolo yayo iphuma okungenani izikhathi ezingu-3. Sebenzisa ijika lensimbi (bell curve) ukulinganisela womabili amathuba, bese uwaqhathanisa nezimpendulo eziqondile.
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo Okubomvu: ijika lensimbi linikeza u-35.6% kanti impendulo eqondile ingu-35.5%. I-straight up: ijika lensimbi linikeza u-55.0% kanti impendulo eqondile ingu-50.9%. Le ndlela emfushane iyasebenza kokubomvu kodwa iyaphutha enombolweni eyodwa.
Okubomvu: ukuwina kunesilinganiso esingu-100 × 18/37 = 48.6, nokusabalala okungu-√(100 × 18/37 × 19/37) = 5.0. Ukuba phambili kusho u-51 noma ngaphezulu; uphawu oluphakathi, u-50.5, lungu-0.37 wokusabalala ngaphezu kwesilinganiso, futhi ijika lensimbi libeka u-35.6% ngaphezu kwalokho. Ukuhlanganisa amathuba aqondile okuwina okungu-51, 52 … 100 kunikeza u-35.5%.
I-straight up: ukuphuma kunesilinganiso esingu-100/37 = 2.70, nokusabalala okungu-√(100 × 1/37 × 36/37) = 1.62. Ukuphuma kathathu noma ngaphezulu kusho ngaphezu kuka-2.5, okungu-0.12 wokusabalala ngaphansi kwesilinganiso: 55.0% ngejika lensimbi. Ngokuqondile, kungu-1 kususwe amathuba okuphuma okungu-0, 1 no-2, 6.5% + 17.9% + 24.7%, okushiya u-50.9%.
Ijika lensimbi lidinga imiphumela eminingi nhlangothi zombili zesilinganiso. Okubomvu kunayo ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-100; inombolo ephuma ngaphansi kwezikhathi ezintathu ngokwesilinganiso ayinayo. Ijika linikeza ngisho u-8.7% ku-“akukho kuphuma”, lapho amathuba angempela engu-6.5%. U-Taylor (2021) ubeka i-binomial nejika lensimbi eceleni ngendlela efanayo.
Okokuhlekisa
Iseshini eyodwa kwangamashumi amabili ingaphandle kwama-sigma amabili. Kuhlale kukhona othile osemsileni.
Imithombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.