Inkinga: Isondo losuku lokuzalwa
Kudingeka ukujikeleza okungakanani ngaphambi kokuthi inombolo ethile iphinde ivele? Kuncane kakhulu kunalokho abantu abaningi abakuqagelayo.
Inkinga yosuku lokuzalwa esondweni elinamagodiokokusebenzaIgodiEsinye sezikhala ezingu-37 ezinezinombolo ku-rotor. Kubuye kuthiwe: slot, cup.Funda konke → angu-37: ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-8 nje kuphela, amathuba angaphezu kwengxenye okuthi inombolo ethile isivele kabili. Abadlali bathatha ukuphindeka njengamaphethini; kodwa kungukuziphatha okulindelekile kwesondo elifanele.
Inkinga
Jikelezisa isondo laseYurophu elifanele. Kudingeka ukujikeleza okungakanani kuze kube amathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → okuthi okungenani ukujikeleza okubili kubonise inombolo efanayo edlula uhhafu? Abadlali abaningi baqagela endaweni ethile ezungeze u-18 noma u-19, ingxenye ka-37. Impendulo ingu-8.
Isixazululo
Bala amathuba okungabi nokuphindeka bese uwasusa kokukodwa. Ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-k, p(zonke zehlukile) = (37/37)(36/37)(35/37)…((38 − k)/37). Uma k = 8: 1 × 0.973 × 0.946 × 0.919 × 0.892 × 0.865 × 0.838 × 0.811 ≈ 0.44, ngakho p(ukuphindeka okuthile) ≈ 0.56. Uma k = 14 kungu-0.93; uma k = 20 kungu-0.996. Umqondo uyakhohlisa ngoba inani lamapheya okujikeleza likhula njengo-k², futhi noma iyiphi ipheya ingafana.
Kungani kubalulekile etafuleni
Ibhodi lemiphumela yezinombolo ezingu-20 zokugcina cishe njalo lizobonisa okungenani ukuphindeka okukodwa, kaningi okubili noma okuthathu. Abadlali babona ukuthi “u-17 uvele kabili ekujikelezeni okuyishumi” bese bethi u-17 ushisa; izibalo zosuku lokuzalwa zithi ukuphindeka ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okuyishumi kwenzeka izikhathi ezingu-74% futhi inombolo ephindekayo ingahleliwe. Iphethini iyiqiniso; incazelo ayiyona.
Inkinga elandelayo
Kudingeka ukujikeleza okungakanani kuze kube inombolo ethile eqondile, ake sithi u-17, isivele kabili? Lowo ngumbuzo ohlukile onempendulo enkulu kakhulu: ukulinda okulindelekile kungukujikeleza okungu-74, futhi amathuba okuthi u-17 avele kabili ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-20 acishe abe ngu-10%. Umehluko phakathi kokuthi “inombolo ethile iyaphindeka” (ukujikeleza okungu-8) nokuthi “le nombolo iyaphindeka” (ukujikeleza okungu-74) ungumehluko wonke phakathi kwephethini oyibona ngemuva kwesikhathi nesibikezelo osenza kusengaphambili.
Zama
Dlala umdlalo wokuzama ukujikeleza okuyishumi bese ubheka umlando. Ngokuvamile kuzoba nokuphindeka. Phinda uyidlale. Inombolo ephindekayo izohluka. Kwenze lokhu kayishumi futhi uzobe usubonile inkinga yosuku lokuzalwaizibaloInkinga yosuku lokuzalwaKudingeka abantu abangaki ngaphambi kokuthi ababili cishe babe nosuku lokuzalwa olufanayo, noma kudingeka ukujikeleza okungaki ngaphambi kokuthi inombolo cishe iphinde ivele. Esondweni elinamagodi angu-37, ukujikeleza okuyisi-8 kwanele ukuze amathuba adlule uhhafu.Funda konke →; kwenze kayinkulungwane (izilingisi zingakwenza) futhi uzobe usuyilinganisile.
Ifomula
Imibuzo
Ncamashi, kodwa ngamagodi angu-37 esikhundleni sezinsuku ezingu-365. Abantu abangu-23 banikeza u-50% ezinsukwini zokuzalwa; ukujikeleza okungu-8 kunikeza u-56% esondweni.
U-50% ngemuva kokujikeleza okucishe kube ngu-19. Lokho kusejwayelekile.
Cha. Izinkulungwane zokujikeleza kwesondo elilodwa zingakukhombisa; ukuphindeka okukodwa akusoze kukukhombise.
Ubumnandi bezibalo
Zama lezi ngokwakho kuqala. Isixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule uma usukulungile.
Ibhodi lemiphumela eliseduze nesondo laseMelika likhombisa ukujikeleza kokugcina okungu-16. Kungenzeka kangakanani ukuthi ayikho inombolo evela kabili kulo?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo Cishe u-2.5%: cishe amabhodi angu-39 kwangu-40 akhombisa okungenani ukuphindwa okukodwa.
Hamba ngokujikeleza ngakunye. Ukujikeleza kokuqala kungaba yinoma yini. Okwesibili kufanele kukugeje: amathuba angu-37 kwangu-38. Okwesithathu kufanele kugeje kokubili: 36 kwangu-38. Okweshumi nesithupha kufanele kugeje izinombolo eziyishumi nanhlanu: 23 kwangu-38.
Phindaphinda: 38/38 × 37/38 × 36/38 × … × 23/38 ≈ 0.0246.
Ibhodi elingenakho ukuphindwa yilona elingavamile. Ibhodi elinokuphindwa alisho lutho ngesondo.
Ekujikelezeni okuyishumi kwesondo laseYurophu, angakanani amathuba okuthi u-17 aphume izikhathi ezinhlanu ncamashi? Okuthi enye inombolo, noma iyiphi, iphume izikhathi ezinhlanu noma ngaphezulu? Futhi okuthi enye inombolo iphume okungenani izikhathi ezintathu ekujikelezeni okune?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo U-17 izikhathi ezinhlanu ncamashi: oku-1 kwangu-315,576. Enye inombolo izikhathi ezinhlanu noma ngaphezulu: cishe oku-1 kwangu-8,333. Enye inombolo izikhathi ezintathu noma ngaphezulu ekujikelezeni okune: oku-1 kwangu-349.
U-17 izikhathi ezinhlanu: khetha ukuthi yikuphi ukujikeleza okuhlanu kokuyishumi, izindlela ezingu-252, ngayinye inamathuba angu-(1/37)⁵ × (36/37)⁵. Ndawonye, oku-1 kwangu-315,576.
Enye inombolo: inombolo ngayinye kwezingu-37 inamathuba oku-1 kwangu-308,325 okushaya okuhlanu noma ngaphezulu, okunikeza okungu-37 kwangu-308,325, noma oku-1 kwangu-8,333. Isimo esingavamile sezinombolo ezimbili ezishaya kahlanu ngayinye sibalwa kabili, kodwa ukusikhipha akushintshi lutho kulokhu kunemba.
Izikhathi ezintathu ekujikelezeni okune: enombolweni eyodwa, 4 × 36 + 1 = 145 wemiphumela engu-37⁴ engenzeka; kunoma iyiphi yezinombolo ezingu-37, 145/37³ = oku-1 kwangu-349.
Esondweni elinamaqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke → amabili, izibalo ezihambisanayo zingoku-1 kwangu-359,275, oku-1 kwangu-9,243 kanye noku-1 kwangu-368. Igebe phakathi kuka-“17” no-“enye inombolo” yinkinga yosuku lokuzalwaizibaloInkinga yosuku lokuzalwaKudingeka abantu abangaki ngaphambi kokuthi ababili cishe babe nosuku lokuzalwa olufanayo, noma kudingeka ukujikeleza okungaki ngaphambi kokuthi inombolo cishe iphinde ivele. Esondweni elinamagodi angu-37, ukujikeleza okuyisi-8 kwanele ukuze amathuba adlule uhhafu.Funda konke → futhi: kunezindlela ezingu-37 zokumangala.
Okokuhlekisa
Okuthile kuyaphindeka kusenesikhathi. Lokho okuthile akuhleliwe.
Imithombo
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, imibuzo nge-roulette.