Isibonelo: Iseshini ye-Martingale
Amadola ayishumi kokubomvu, aphindwa kabili ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye, etafuleni elinomkhawulo ka-$500. Ukujikeleza ngokujikeleza, kuhlanganise nokujikeleza okukuqedayo.
Iseshini elingisiwe ye-Martingale eqala ngemali yokubheja engu-$1,000. Ukuwina okuncane okungamashumi amane nanye, bese kuba ukuhlulwa okuyisithupha kulandelana nokubheja kwesikhombisa okwenqatshwayo. Iseshini iphela ilahlekelwe ngu-$220 ngemuva kokuba phambili ngo-$410, futhi yilokho uhlelo olukwenzayo.
Uhlelo
Bheja u-$10 kokubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke →. Ngemuva kokuhlulwa, phinda kabili. Ngemuva kokuwina, buyela ku-$10. Umkhawulo wetafulaitafulaUmkhawulo wetafulaInani elincane nelikhulu kakhulu lokubheja elivunyelwe. Umkhawulo ophezulu yiwona omisa ukwenyuswa kwenani okuphindaphinda kabili.Funda konke → ngu-$500, ngakho amanani abhejwayo ngu-10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320 bese kuba ukubheja kuka-$640 okuzokwenqatshwa yitafula. Ukuhlulwa okuyisithupha okulandelanayo kuphula uhlelo; umzamo ngamunye unamathuba angu-(19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8% okwenza lokho, futhi iseshini yokujikeleza okungu-100 iqukethe cishe imizamo engu-50. Okulindelekile: cishe amathuba angu-60% okuphuka ngaphakathi kokujikeleza okungu-100, nokulahlekelwa ngu-$630 lapho kwenzeka.
Ukujikeleza 1–30
I-MartingaleisuMartingaleUkwenyuswa kwenani okuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye. Bheka isigaba esithi “Amasu okubheja ku-roulette” ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzani nokuthi yini engakwenzi.Funda konke → ejwayelekile: uchungechunge lokuhlulwa okukodwa kuya kokuthathu, ngalunye luphethwa wukuwina okunika isamba esingu-+$10. Ekujikelezeni 30 sesiwine kayi-17, ukuwina ngakunye kuvala umjikelezo wohlelo, futhi siphambili ngo-$170. Inani elibhejwayo elikhulu kunawo wonke kuze kube manje lalingu-$80 ngemuva kokuhlulwa kathathu. Kuzwakala njengomshini ophrinta amaphepha emali ka-$10.
Ukujikeleza 31–60
Okufanayo futhi, nomjikelezo owodwa wokuhlulwa kane (amanani abhejwayo afika ku-$160, bese kuba ukuwina) owabeka u-$310 etafuleni isikhashana futhi wazwakala njengesibindi. Ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-60: imijikelezo engu-41 iphothuliwe, siphambili ngo-$410, futhi indawo ephansi kakhulu yemali yokubhejaimaliImali yokubhejaInani lonke lemali ebekelwe ukudlala. Ukuphatha imali yokubheja kusho ukunquma ukuthi ingakanani yayo ozoyibeka engcupheni ekubhejeni ngakunye nasesheshini ngayinye.Funda konke → yayingu-$1,040. I-histogram yayo yonke iseshini ye-Martingale ibukeka kanje esikhathini esiningi sobude bayo.
Ukujikeleza 61–66
H H H H H H. Amanani abhejwayo 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: kulahlekile u-$630. Ukubheja okulandelayo bekuzoba ngu-$640; umkhawulo ngu-$500. Uhlelo luphukile. Singabheja u-$500 (futhi uma kuwina, sisalahlekelwe ngu-$130 kulo mjikelezo) noma sibuyele ku-$10 samukele ukulahlekelwa. Izinombolo ezimnyamaukubhejaMnyamaUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni ezimnyama eziyi-18. NgesiFulentshi: noir.Funda konke → noma amaqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke → ayisithupha kulandelana anamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → angu-1.8% emjikelezweni ngamunye. Sasesidlale cishe imijikelezo engu-45. Amathuba okufika kuleli zinga ndawana thize emijikelezweni engu-45 ayecishe abe ngu-55%. Kwakungeyona inhlanhla embi; kwakuyisilinganiso esimaphakathi.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- phakathi −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Izibalo
Phambili ngo-$410 ngemuva kokujikeleza okungu-60, silahlekelwe ngu-$220 ngemuva kokungu-66. Isamba esibhejiwe: cishe u-$2,100 ekujikelezeni okungu-66, uma kuqhathaniswa no-$660 womuntu obheja u-$10 olinganayo njalo. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → ku-$2,100 wemali ebhejiweimaliImali yonke ebhejiweInani lonke elibhejwe phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile, kubalwa nemali ewiniwe ephinde yabhejwa. Kubuye kuthiwe: handle, action.Funda konke → ngu-$57; u-−$220 wethu owenzekile ucishe ube yingxenye yesithathu yokuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → ngaphansi kwalokho, okungeyona into emangalisayo ohlelweni olunokusabalalisa okunomsila omude ngakwesobunxele. Ukube sama ekujikelezeni 60 nomkhawulo wokuwinaisuUmkhawulo wokuwinaUmgomo wenzuzo onqunywe kusenesikhathi lapho uqeda khona iseshini.Funda konke → ongu-$400, ngabe sihambe siphambili ngo-$410, futhi iseshini elandelayo ngabe yaba nalawo mathuba angu-1.8% emjikelezweni ngamunye.
Lokho okuboniswa yiseshini
I-Martingale iguqula ukubheja okungu-48.65% kube uchungechunge oluwina ku-98% yemijikelezo yalo futhi lulahlekelwe amayunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → angu-63 kweminye engu-2%. Ayikuguquli ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile kudola ngalinye; iphindaphinda amadola. Umuntu obheja inani elilinganayo eceleni kwethu wabheja ingxenye yesithathu yalokho futhi walahlekelwa, ngokwesilinganiso, ingxenye yesithathu. Umdlali osebenzisa lolu hlelo unyaka wonke uzowina ngobusuku obuningi kodwa alahlekelwe unyaka.
Uchungechunge lokuhlulwa luza kangaki
Ukubheja okulingana nemali esondweni elineqanda elilodwa kuhlulwa ekujikelezeni okungu-19 kwangu-37. Umugqa ngamunye ungamathuba okuthi uchungechunge oluthile lokujikeleza luhlulwe lonke, nokuthi umdlali we-Martingale, ophinda kabili ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye, usuvele ulahlekelwe yimali engakanani ngaleso sikhathi.
| ukuhlulwa ngokulandelana | amathuba | cishe 1 kwangu- | okulahlekile kuze kube manje | ukubheja okulandelayo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye ngokuhlulwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikelezeni okuthile okukodwa. Iseshini ende inokujikeleza okuningi lapho uchungechunge olunjalo lungaqala khona, ngakho ebusuku bonke lungenzeka kakhulu kunalokho okuphakanyiswa umugqa owodwa.
Imibuzo
Ukuhlulwa okuyisishiyagalolunye kuyaluphula esikhundleni sokuyisithupha: 0.25% emjikelezweni ngamunye, no-$5,110 olahlekayo lapho kwenzeka. Iwa elingavamile kakhulu, iwa eliphakeme kakhulu, −2.70% efanayo.
Bekuzowina ku-48.65% yezikhathi futhi kushiye umjikelezo ku-−$130 noma kunjalo. Akukho sinyathelo esihle ngemuva kokuba i-Martingale iphukile; kukhona kuphela inani elibhejwayo olikhetha ngokulandelayo.
Yebo, kuleyo seshini. Hhayi esilinganisweni sawo wonke amaseshini.
Ubumnandi bezibalo
Zama lezi ngokwakho kuqala. Isixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule uma usukulungile.
Etafuleni le-$1 kuya ku-$500, umdlali we-MartingaleisuMartingaleUkwenyuswa kwenani okuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye. Bheka isigaba esithi “Amasu okubheja ku-roulette” ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzani nokuthi yini engakwenzi.Funda konke → uqala ngo-$1 kokubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → esondweni elineqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke → elilodwa. Kudinga ukuhlulwa okungaki kulandelana ukuze kumise ukuphinda kabili, kulahleke malini ngaleso sikhathi, futhi kwenzeka kangaki?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo Ukuhlulwa okuyisishiyagalolunye: kulahleke u-$511, futhi ukubheja okulandelayo bekungaba ngu-$512. Kwenzeka kanye cishe emijikelezweni engu-403.
Amanani abhejwayo angu-1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 no-256: ndawonye angu-$511. Okweshumi bekungaba ngu-$512, ngaphezu komkhawulo. Ukubheja kwe-$500 okuwinayo kusashiya umdlali elahlekelwe u-$11; okuhlulwayo kumshiya elahlekelwe u-$1,011.
Okubomvu kuhlulwa ngamathuba angu-19/37, ngakho ukuhlulwa okuyisishiyagalolunye kulandelana kunamathuba angu-(19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, kanye cishe emijikelezweni engu-403. Umjikelezo ngamunye oqediwe uwina u-$1, ngakho umdlali ulindele cishe u-$402 wokuwina okuncane ngaphambi kokulahlekelwa okukodwa kuka-$511, futhi u-2.70% wakho konke okubhejiwe usalahleka ngokwesilinganiso.
Esondweni elinamaqanda amabili amathuba angu-(20/38)⁹, kanye cishe emijikelezweni engu-323. U-Bollman (2021) ubhala ukuthi “cishe oku-1 kwangu-833”, okungu-(18/38)⁹, amathuba okuwina kayisishiyagalolunye kulandelana.
Okokuhlekisa
Ukuwina okuncane okungamashumi amane nanye nokulahlekelwa okukodwa okukhulu. Lolo uhlelo lonke.
Imithombo
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”