Izibonelo zeseshini · Isibonelo · imizuzu 6

Isibonelo: Isu lamadazini amabili ku-roulette

Amadola ayishumi edazinini ngalinye kwamabili, izinombolo ezingu-24 zimbozwe, ekujikelezeni okungamashumi amahlanu. Isu le-roulette lamadazini amabili wukubheja okumboza izinombolo eziningi okuwina ekujikelezeni okubili kokuthathu kodwa kusabiza i-2.70%.

Impendulo emfushane

Iseshini elingisiwe yokujikeleza okungu-50 ka-$10 edazinini lokuqala nelesibili. Ukuwina okungamashumi amathathu nanye kuka-$10, ukuhlulwa okuyishumi nesishiyagalolunye kuka-$20 (idazini lesithathu noma iqanda). Isamba ngu-−$70, ngemuva kokuba phambili ngo-$90. Ukubheja okuzwakala kuphephile ngoba kuwina kaningi futhi kunentengo efana ncamashi nakho konke okunye.

ekujikelezeni ngakunye
$20 ku-1–12 naku-13–24
kumboza
24 kwangu-37
p(ukuwina)
64.9%
okulindelekile ekujikelezeni ngakunye
−$0.54

Uhlelo: isu le-roulette lamadazini amabili

U-$10 edazininiukubhejaIdazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha u-2:1.Funda konke → lokuqala no-$10 kwelesibili. Inombolo esuka ku-1 kuya ku-24 ikhokhela idazini elilodwa u-$20 bese kulahleka u-$10 kwelinye: +$10. Inombolo esuka ku-25 kuya ku-36, noma iqandaisondoIqandaIgodi elilodwa eliluhlaza elingambozwa ukubheja okulingana nemali, okwedazini noma okwekholamu; umthombo wenzuzo yekhasino. Kubuye kuthiwe: iqanda elilodwa, 0.Funda konke →, ilahlekisa kokubili: −$20. Inani elilindelekileizibaloInani elilindelekileUmphumela ovamile ekubhejeni ngakunye esikhathini eside. U-−1/37 wenani elibhejwayo kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Funda konke →: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = −20/37 = −$0.54 ekujikelezeni ngakunye, okuyi-2.70% ka-$20. Izinga lokuwina ngu-64.9%, futhi yilona nani elithengisa lokhu kubheja.

Ukujikeleza 1–25

Ukuwina okuyishumi nesishiyagalombili, ukuhlulwa okuyisikhombisa: +$180 − $140 = +$40. Ukuhlulwa okuyisikhombisa kwakuhlanganisa iqanda elilodwa nochungechunge lwezinombolo ezintathu zedazini lesithathu ekujikelezeni 11–13 olwabiza u-$60 kulandelana futhi lwazwakala luyinto engavamile. Kwakuyi-35.1% ifika iqoqene ndawonye, futhi izinto ezinjalo ziyaqoqana.

ukujikelezaku-1–24ku-25–36 noma ku-0isambaibhalansi
1–1073+$10+$10
11–1303−$60−$50
14–25111+$90+$40
Izinombolo ezintathu zilandelana ezivela edazinini elingambozwanga zibiza u-$60: i-35% ifika iqoqene ndawonye.

Ukujikeleza 26–50

Ukuwina okuyishumi nantathu, ukuhlulwa okuyishumi nambili: +$130 − $240 = −$110. Ukuhlulwa okuyishumi nambili ekujikelezeni okungu-25 kuyinto eyenzeka ku-20% yezikhathi, akuyona into engavamile. Ekugcineni −$70; okuphezulu kakhulu +$90 ekujikelezeni 31. Lokhu kubheja akuzange kuveze ukuguquka okukhulu kunoma yiluphi uhlangothi, ngoba ukuwina ku-$10 nokuhlulwa ku-$20; kumane kwagaya kancane kancane.

Le seshini nezinye eziyisishiyagalolunye ezifana nayoumphumela uqhathaniswa nesiqalo
+$530$0−$500+$190−$2500125250375500ukujikelezaumphumela
amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · okunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo phakathi, amasampula angu-82 afiphele · hambisa phezu kweshadi ukuze ubone ama-quantile ekujikelezeni
  • p10 −$500
  • p25 −$500
  • phakathi −$280
  • p75 −$40
  • p90 +$170
amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · i-y-axis inqunyelwe ku-percentile yoku-1–99 (okweqisayo −$500 kuya ku-+$980) · ukujikeleza okungu-500 · isisekelo $20 · amadazini amabili
Amadazini amabili ngo-$20 sekukonke: +$10 ekujikelezeni okubili kokuthathu, −$20 ekujikelezeni okukodwa kokuthathu. Ukuguquguquka okuphansi; umugqa wesilinganiso wehla ngo-−$0.54 ekujikelezeni ngakunye, ukwehla okufanayo nokuka-$20 kokubomvu.

Izibalo

Isamba esibhejiwe ngu-$1,000 ekujikelezeni okungu-50. Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → ngu-$27; okwenzekile −$70, cishe ukuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → okukodwa ngaphansi (σ ekujikelezeni ngakunye icishe ibe ngu-$14, ngakho cishe u-$100 ekujikelezeni okungu-50). U-$20 ofanayo kokubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke → ngabe waba nokulindelekile okufanayo kanye ne-σ enkulu, cishe u-$140 kuyo yonke iseshini: amadazini amabili ayindlela yokuguquguqukaizibaloUkuguquguqukaIsilinganiso sokuthi imiphumela ihlakazeke kangakanani ezungeze inani elilindelekile. Kuphezulu ku-straight up, kuphansi ekubhejeni okulingana nemali.Funda konke → okuphansi yokulahlekelwa yinani elifanayo.

Lokho okuboniswa yiseshini

Ukumboza izinombolo ezingu-24 kwenza i-roulette izwakale njengomdlalo ovamise ukuwina kuwo, futhi uyawina ngempela: ku-64.9% yokujikeleza. InkokheloimaliInkokheloLokho ukubheja okuwinile okubuyisayo, okushiwo ngokuthi “X ku-1” ngaphezu kwenani elibhejiwe elibuyiswayo.Funda konke → ihlelwe ukuze i-35.1% olahlekelwa kuyo ikubize kabili kunalokho okukhokhelwa wukuwina, futhi isilinganiso silungiswe yithebula lokubhejaokokusebenzaIthebula lokubhejaIgridi yokubheja ephrintiwe etafuleni. Kubuye kuthiwe: itafula, i-felt, indwangu.Funda konke → sibe ngu-−1/37 wenani lonke elibhejiwe. Engeza ithokheniimaliIthokheniUphawu olumele inani elinqunyiwe, olubekwa ethebuleni lokubheja ukuze ubheje. Kubuye kuthiwe: check.Funda konke → eqandeni ukuze ibe “umshwalense” futhi inzuzo yekhasino ehlanganisiwe isengu-2.70%, ngoba nomshwalense unentengo engu-2.70%. Ikhasi elithi Inkinga: Amadazini amabili nethokheni likuchaza ngokuphelele.

Imibuzo

Amadazini amabili noma amakholamu amabili?

Izibalo ziyafana: izinombolo ezingu-24, +1 iyunithiimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → uma ishaya, −2 uma iphutha. AmakholamuukubhejaIkholamuIzinombolo eziyishumi nambili ekholamu eyodwa eqondile yethebula lokubheja, kukhokha u-2:1.Funda konke → asabalalisa izinombolo ezimboziwe esondweni lonke; amadazini aziqoqela ndawonye ethebuleni lokubheja. Akukho kokubili okubalulekile.

Kuthiwani ngethokheni eqandeni?

Kumboza izinombolo ezingu-25; iqanda manje linika isamba esingu-+$16 esikhundleni sika-−$20 ngentengo ka-$1 ekujikelezeni ngakunye. Inani elilindelekile lingu-−$0.57 ku-$21, lisengu-2.70%.

Ingabe i-64.9% akusona “isikhathi esiningi”?

Kunjalo, futhi inkokhelo ilinganiselwe kuyo. Iningi lesikhathi uwina u-$10. Ngezinye izikhathi ulahlekelwa ngu-$20. Isilinganiso yinzuzo yekhasinoizibaloInzuzo yekhasinoIngxenye yenani ngalinye elibhejwayo ikhasino eyigcinayo ngokwesilinganiso: ama-2.70% ku-roulette yaseYurophu.Funda konke →.

Okokuhlekisa

Wina ekujikelezeni okubili kokuthathu. Lahlekelwa okuphindwe kabili kokwesithathu. Umphumela ungu-2.70%.

Wina ekujikelezeni okubili kokuthathu. Lahlekelwa okuphindwe kabili kokwesithathu. Umphumela ungu-2.70%.

Imithombo

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. Isahluko 13, i-roulette.
kubuyekezwe ngo-2026-09-28imodeli: yaseYurophu, iqanda elilodwaindlela yokusebenza ↗imithombo ↗