Isu · Ukwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuhlulwa · imizuzu engu-9

Isu le-Martingale ku-roulette

Isu le-Martingale ku-roulette liphinda kabili ukubheja ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye bese libuyela ekubhejeni kokuqala ngemuva kokuwina. Ukuwina ngakunye kubuyisa konke ukulahlekelwa kwangaphambilini kanye neyunithi elilodwa eyisisekelo. Ikhasi elingezansi likhombisa ukuthi lokho kwenzani emalini yokubheja, nokuthi kungani kungakwazi ukushintsha ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile.

Impendulo emfushaneAluhluli isondo. Njengesu lokuphinda kabili ku-roulette, i-Martingale ikhiqiza ukuwina okuncane okuningi nokulahlekelwa okukhulu ngezikhathi ezithile. Kunoma yisiphi isibalo sokujikeleza ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile kusahlala kungu-2.70% wemali yonke ebhejiwe, futhi ngoba ukwenyuswa kwenani kubheja imali eningi, ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile ngeseshini kukhulu kunokubheja inani elingaguquki, akukuncane.

Uhlelo lwe-Martingale ku-roulette lusebenza kanjani?

Uhlulwe, uphinde kabili. Uwine, ubuyele ekubhejeni kokuqala. Lolo uhlelo lonke. Uma ukubheja kokuqala kungu-$10 futhi umkhawulo wetafula ungu-$500, ukulandelana kuyaphela ngemuva kokuhlulwa kayisithupha. Ikholamu yokugcina ingamathuba okufinyelela leso sinyathelo ekubhejeni okulingana nemali, lapho ukuhlulwa ngakunye kunamathuba angu-19/37.

ukuhlulwa #ukubheja okulandelayokonke okufakwe engozinip(ukufinyelela)

0$10$10100.00%

1$20$3051.35%

2$40$7026.37%

3$80$15013.54%

4$160$3106.95%

5$320$6303.57%

6$640$1,2701.83%

7$1,280$2,5500.94%

Ukubheja kokuqala kungu-$10, umkhawulo wetafula ungu-$500. Ngemuva kokuhlulwa kayisithupha ukubheja okulandelayo kungu-$640, okungaphezu komkhawulo: ukwenyuswa kwenani kuyehluleka kulahleke u-$630. Amathuba okuhlulwa kayisithupha ngokulandelana kokubomvu angu-(19/37)^6 = 1.83%, cishe kanye emizameni engu-55.

Hamba nohlelo

Ukuhlulwa kuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo. Ukuwina kubuyela ekuqaleni.

okubhejwayo okulandelayo1umphumela kuze kube manje0ukujikeleza0

Amanani abhejwayo nemiphumela kungamayunithi okubheja okuyisisekelo.

Iseshini ibukeka kanjani?

Izinyathelo ezincane zikhuphuka, bese kuba nomgodi. Ku-Martingale ye-roulette, uchungechunge ngalunye oluphothuliwe lokuphinda kabili lwengeza ukubheja kokuqala okukodwa, ngakho umugqa ukhuphuka kancane kancane. Uchungechunge olushayisa umkhawulo ongu-$500 lubuyisa u-$630 ngesikhathi esisodwa: izinyathelo ezingu-63 zalezo.

Amaseshini ayishumi e-Martingale, ukubheja kokuqala $10, umkhawulo $500umphumela uqhathaniswa nesiqalo

amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · okunsomi p10/p25/p75/p90, okuluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka okukhanyayo phakathi, amasampula angu-83 afiphele · hambisa phezu kweshadi ukuze ubone ama-quantile ekujikelezeni

p10 −$1,000
p25 −$1,000
phakathi −$1,000
p75 +$930
p90 +$1,830

amaseshini angu-1,000 × ukujikeleza okungu-500 · i-y-axis inqunyelwe ku-percentile yoku-1–99 (okweqisayo −$1,000 kuya ku-+$2,640) · ukujikeleza okungu-500 · isisekelo $10 · okulingana nemali

Umugqa ngamunye uyiseshini eyodwa yokubheja okulingana nemali kusuka emalini yokubheja engu-$1,000. Ukukhuphuka okude, ukwehla okungazelelwe.

Izinyathelo ezincane zikhuphuka, bese kuba nomgodi oziqeda zonke ngesikhathi esisodwa.

Isilingisi

Isilungiselelo ngasinye siqhuba amaseshini angu-2,000 okubheja okulingana nemali kusuka emalini yokubheja engu-$1,000. Imiphumela ibuyekezwa ngokushesha.

Ukubheja okuyisisekelo

Umkhawulo wetafula

Ukujikeleza ngeseshini

Imiphumela yamaseshini · amaseshini angu-2,000 · ukujikeleza okungu-100 · isisekelo $10 · umkhawulo $500ukulahlekelwa ← | → inzuzo

−$1,000$0+$650

beka igundane phezu kwebha · amabha abomvu angamaseshini ahluliwe, aluhlaza awinile, ibha ephaphathekile ihlanganisa u-$0

amaseshini anenzuzo

40.8%

umphumela ophakathi nendawo

−$130

umphumela wesilinganiso

−$66.44

ukwenyuswa kwenani kwahluleka

59.3% wamaseshini

i-percentile yesi-5

−$1,000

ukwehla okukhulu okuphakathi nendawo

−$650

Amaseshini amaningi aphela ephambili kancane (40.8%), futhi yilokho okuheha abantu. Isilinganiso singaphansi kweqanda (−$66.44) ngoba amaseshini ahluliwe makhulu: ukwenyuswa kwenani kufinyelele umkhawulo wetafula ku-59.3% wamaseshini. Obheja inani elingaguquki elingu-$10 ekujikelezeni okufanayo ulindele ukulahlekelwa cishe ngu-$27.

Uchungechunge lokuhlulwa luza kangaki

Ukubheja okulingana nemali esondweni elineqanda elilodwa kuhlulwa ekujikelezeni okungu-19 kwangu-37. Umugqa ngamunye ungamathuba okuthi uchungechunge oluthile lokujikeleza luhlulwe lonke, nokuthi umdlali we-Martingale, ophinda kabili ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye, usuvele ulahlekelwe yimali engakanani ngaleso sikhathi.

Ukubheja okuyisisekelo

ukuhlulwa ngokulandelana	amathuba	cishe 1 kwangu-	okulahlekile kuze kube manje	ukubheja okulandelayo
1	51.4%	2	$1	$2
2	26.4%	4	$3	$4
3	13.5%	7	$7	$8
4	7.0%	14	$15	$16
5	3.6%	28	$31	$32
6	1.8%	55	$63	$64
7	0.94%	106	$127	$128
8	0.48%	207	$255	$256
9	0.25%	403	$511	$512
10	0.13%	784	$1,023	$1,024
11	0.065%	1527	$2,047	$2,048
12	0.034%	2974	$4,095	$4,096
13	0.017%	5792	$8,191	$8,192
14	0.0089%	11279	$16,383	$16,384
15	0.0046%	21965	$32,767	$32,768

Amathuba ngu-19/37 ophindaphindwe ngokwawo kanye ngokuhlulwa ngakunye, kubalwa kusukela ekujikelezeni okuthile okukodwa. Iseshini ende inokujikeleza okuningi lapho uchungechunge olunjalo lungaqala khona, ngakho ebusuku bonke lungenzeka kakhulu kunalokho okuphakanyiswa umugqa owodwa.

Uchungechunge lokuhlulwa kayishumi nanhlanu lwenzeka cishe kanye emizameni engu-22,000. Lokho kuzwakala kuphephile. Akunjalo, ngenxa yezizathu ezimbili. Ukujikeleza ngakunye kuqala umzamo omusha, futhi kusihlwa kunokujikeleza okungamakhulu. Futhi akekho ofika kokwesishumi nanhlanu: kusukela ekubhejeni kokuqala okungu-$10, umkhawulo ongu-$500 uqeda ukuphinda kabili ngemuva kokuhlulwa kayisithupha, okwenzeka cishe kanye emizameni engu-55.

Kungani lungakwazi ukushintsha amathuba?

Amanani alindelekile ayahlanganiswa. Uma ukubheja ngakunye kunokulindelekile okungu-−2.70% wenani lako elibhejwayo, khona-ke noma yikuphi ukulandelana kokubheja, noma ngabe amanani akhethwa kanjani, kunokulindelekile okungu-−2.70% wenani lonke elibhejiwe. Ukukhetha inani elibhejwayo kungancika emiphumeleni edlule; ngeke kuncike emphumeleni olandelayo.

E[Σ bᵢ·Xᵢ] = Σ bᵢ·E[Xᵢ] = −(1/37)·Σ bᵢ
bᵢ ikhethwa ngaphambi kokujikeleza i; Xᵢ = ±1 izimele ku-bᵢ

Imibono engeyiqiniso evamile

“Kudingeka uwine kanye nje ukuze ubuyise konke.”

Kuyiqiniso ngaphakathi kokwenyuswa kwenani okuphothulwayo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani okungaphothulwa, ngenxa yomkhawulo wetafula noma imali yakho yokubheja, kulahla yonke imali yalokho kulandelana, futhi lokho kulandelana kukhulu ngenxa yendlela uhlelo olwakhiwe ngayo.

“Uma imali yokubheja yanele ngobukhulu, ngeke lwehluleke.”

Umkhawulo wetafula umisa ukuphinda kabili kudala ngaphambi kokuba imali yokubheja yabantu abaningi iphele. Ngaphandle komkhawulo, imali yokubheja edingekayo ikhula ngokushesha okukhulu (exponentially) kanti inzuzo ngomjikelezo wohlelo ngamunye ihlala iyiyunithi elilodwa eyisisekelo.

“Ukuhlulwa kayisithupha ngokulandelana cishe akunakwenzeka.”

Kokubomvu kwenzeka ku-1.83% wazo zonke izingxenye zokujikeleza okuyisithupha okulandelanayo. Eseshinini yokujikeleza okungu-200 ngokuvamile uzobona okungenani uchungechunge olulodwa lokuhlulwa kayisithupha.

Okokuhlekisa

Ukuwina okuncane okuningi, ukulahlekelwa okukhulu okuyivelakancane. Futhi isimangalo usikhokha wena.

Isiphetho sezibaloUhlelo lwe-Martingale ku-roulette luhwebelanisa amathuba amakhulu okuwina okuncane namathuba amancane okulahlekelwa okukhulu. Kungumshwalense othengiswa ngendlela ehlanekezelwe: uqoqa imali encane yomshwalense ebusuku obuningi bese ukhokha wena isimangalo esikhulu esiyivelakancane. Lwenyusa imali ebhejwayo ngeseshini ngayinye, ngakho lwenyusa ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile ngeseshini. Alunciphisi futhi alukwazi ukunciphisa inzuzo yekhasino. Uma noma kunjalo usebenzisa isu le-Martingale ku-roulette, yazi kusengaphambili lapho luzophuka khona: uma ukubheja kokuqala kungu-$10 futhi umkhawulo ungu-$500, lokho kungukuhlulwa kayisithupha ngokulandelana, isenzakalo esinamathuba angu-1.8% emzamweni ngamunye. Bona Ukuphatha imali yokubheja kanye nesihloko esithi Umkhawulo wokulahlekelwa / umkhawulo wokuwina.