Izibalo · Umqondo oyisisekelo · imizuzu engu-7

Inani elilindelekile ku-roulette

Inani elilindelekile ku-roulette umphumela wesilinganiso wokubheja uma ubungakuphinda unomphela. Ku-roulette yaseYurophu liyafana kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile: ulahlekelwa ngu-1/37 wenani ngalinye elibhejwayo, ngokwesilinganiso, ekujikelezeni ngakunye.

Ngamazwi alula

Cabanga ubeka ukubheja okufanayo kuka-$10 kokubomvu izikhathi eziyisigidi. Okunye ukujikeleza kuwina u-$10, okunye kulahlekelwa ngu-$10. Hlanganisa yonke imiphumela bese uhlukanisa ngesigidi: uthola cishe u-−$0.27. Leyo nombolo iyinani elilindelekile lokubheja ku-roulette. Akusikho okwenzeka kunoma yikuphi ukujikeleza okukodwa; yisilinganiso sesikhathi eside ngokujikeleza ngakunye.

Impendulo emfushaneInani elilindelekile = amathuba okuwina × imali ewinwayo − amathuba okuhlulwa × imali elahlekayo. Kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile ku-roulette lokho kuphuma kube ngu-−2.70% wenani elibhejwayo.

Ifomula yenani elilindelekile lokubheja ku-roulette

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = izinombolo ezimboziwe · S = inani elibhejwayo

Faka umthetho wenkokhelo ye-roulette, 36/n − 1, bese u-n uyasuka. Leyo yindaba yonke yenzuzo yekhasino emugqeni owodwa:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
= S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
= −S/37

Zama: isibali senani elilindelekile ku-roulette

Khetha ukuthi ukubheja kumboza izinombolo ezingaki. Amathuba nenkokhelo kuyashintsha; inani elilindelekile alishintshi.

inombolo 1 ehlanganisiwe · kukhokha 35:1inani elibhejwayo $10

ukuhlulwa 97.3%

p(ukuwina)1/37 = 2.70%

ukuwina kukhokha+$350

ukuhlulwa kubiza−$10

EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10

inani elilindelekile−$0.27 ngokujikeleza · −2.70%

Kubukeka kanjani ngokuhamba kwesikhathi

Umphumela wesilinganiso ngokujikeleza ngakunye wokubheja kuka-$10 kokubomvu, njengoba ukujikeleza kwanda. Ekuqaleni, inhlanhla iyabusa; isilinganiso esiqhubekayo sizinza siye ku-−$0.27 njengoba isampula ikhula. Lokhu ukuhlangana ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ikhasino ethembele kukho.

Ukujikeleza ngokujikeleza, isilinganiso esiqhubekayo siyeka ukugxuma bese sizinza ngaphansi nje kweqanda.

Imibono engeyiqiniso evamile

“Inani elilindelekile elibi lisho ukuthi ngizohlulwa kuyo yonke iseshini.”

Cha. Lisho ukuthi isilinganiso samaseshini amaningi siwukulahlekelwa. Iseshini ngayinye yehluka kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ekubhejeni okunokuguquguquka okuphezulu njenge-straight up.

“Ikhasino idinga isikhathi eside ukuze iwine.”

Inzuzo yekhasino isebenza kukho konke ukujikeleza; okwenziwa yisikhathi eside ukwenza umphumela ubikezeleke. Eseshinini eyodwa, inhlanhla iyona enamandla amakhulu.

“Okunye ukubheja kunenani elilindelekile elingcono kunokunye.”

Akunjalo ku-roulette yaseYurophu, ngaphandle kwesimo esisodwa: ngaphansi kwe-La Partage noma i-En Prison, ukubheja okulingana nemali kunengxenye yenzuzo yekhasino ejwayelekile.

Okokuhlekisa

$Akusikho okwenzeka ekujikelezeni okukodwa. Yisilinganiso sakho konke.$

Akusikho okwenzeka ekujikelezeni okukodwa. Yisilinganiso sakho konke.