Ukuguquguquka
Kungani i-straight up nokubheja kokubomvu okunokulahlekelwa okulindelekileizibaloUkulahlekelwa okulindelekileInani elilindelekile liphindaphindwe ngemali yonke ebhejiwe; inani elilahlekayo ngokwesilinganiso phakathi neseshini noma esikhathini esithile.Funda konke → okufanayo kuzwakala njengemidlalo ehlukene.
Ukuguquguquka (variance) kukala ukuthi imiphumela isakazeke kangakanani kuzungeze inani elilindelekile. Eyunithini ngayinye ebhejiwe kucishe kube ngu-34 ku-straight up futhi cishe ku-1 kokubomvu.
Ifomula yokubheja okukodwa
Ekubhejeni okukhokha u-W ku-1 ngamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → angu-p, umphumela eyunithiniimaliIyunithiInani elibhejwayo eliyisisekelo uhlelo noma umdlali asebenza ngalo. Ukwenyuswa kwenani kuchazwa ngamayunithi ukuze kusebenze kunoma yiliphi itafula.Funda konke → ngayinye ungu-+W ngamathuba angu-p no-−1 ngamathuba angu-1 − p. Inani elilindelekileizibaloInani elilindelekileUmphumela ovamile ekubhejeni ngakunye esikhathini eside. U-−1/37 wenani elibhejwayo kukho konke ukubheja okujwayelekile kwaseYurophu.Funda konke → lingu-pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. UkuguquguqukaizibaloUkuguquguqukaIsilinganiso sokuthi imiphumela ihlakazeke kangakanani ezungeze inani elilindelekile. Kuphezulu ku-straight up, kuphansi ekubhejeni okulingana nemali.Funda konke → kungu-E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². Ku-straight upukubhejaI-straight upInombolo eyodwa, kukhokha u-35:1.Funda konke →: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 34.08. KokubomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke →: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 0.999.
Kusho ukuthini eseshini
Ukuguquguquka kuyahlangana ekujikelezeni okuzimeleizibaloUkujikeleza okuzimeleUkujikeleza ngakunye kunamathuba afanayo noma ngabe kwenzekeni ngaphambili. Isisekelo sazo zonke izibalo kule sayithi.Funda konke →, ngakho ekujikelezeni okungu-N ngenani elibhejwayo elingaguquki ukuguquguquka kwenani eliphelele kungu-N × inani elibhejwayo² × σ², futhi ukuchezuka okujwayelekileizibaloUkuchezuka okujwayelekileImpande yesikwele yokuguquguquka (variance); ibanga elivamile lomphumela ukusuka enanini elilindelekile.Funda konke → kungu-σ × inani elibhejwayo × √N. Ukujikeleza okungu-100 ngo-$10: ukuchezuka okujwayelekile kucishe kube ngu-$584 ku-straight up no-$100 kokubomvu, kuzungeze inani elilindelekile elifanayo elingu-−$27. Omunye umdlali ubona imiphumela ishintsha ngamakhulu; omunye ubona ukukhukhuleka kancane. Bobabili bakhokha intengo efanayo.
Ukuguquguquka nezinhlelo
Ukwenyuswa kwenaniisuUkwenyuswa kwenaniNoma yimuphi umthetho oshintsha inani elibhejwayo ngokusekelwe emiphumeleni yangaphambili. Ukwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuhlulwa kulikhuphula ngemuva kokulahlekelwa, ukwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuwina kulikhuphula ngemuva kokuwina.Funda konke → akuyishintshi i-EV eyunithini ngayinye ebhejiwe kodwa kushintsha kokubili inani elibhejwayo nesimo sokusabalala kwemiphumela. I-MartingaleisuMartingaleUkwenyuswa kwenani okuphinda kabili inani elibhejwayo ngemuva kokuhlulwa ngakunye. Bheka isigaba esithi “Amasu okubheja ku-roulette” ukuze ubone ukuthi kwenzani nokuthi yini engakwenzi.Funda konke → yehlisa ukuguquguquka kwamaseshini amaningi (ukuwina okuncane okuningi) futhi yengeza umsila omkhulu (ukulahlekelwa okukhulu okungavamile); ukuguquguquka okuphelele kuwo wonke amaseshini kuphezulu kunokukubheja ngenani elingaguqukiisuUkubheja ngenani elilodwaUkubheja inani elifanayo kukho konke ukujikeleza. Isisekelo okuqhathaniswa naso konke ukwenyuswa kwenani.Funda konke → ngenxa yalowo msila. I-ParoliisuParoliUkwenyuswa kwenani ngemuva kokuwina: phinda kabili ngemuva kokuwina, buyela ekuqaleni ngemuva kokuhlulwa noma ngemuva kokuwina kathathu kulandelana. Kubuye kuthiwe: i-Martingale ephambene.Funda konke → yenza okuphambene. Ukukhetha uhlelo kuwukukhetha isimo sokuguquguquka; isilinganiso asikho ohlwini lokukhetha.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- phakathi −$500
- p75 +$40
- p90 +$1,120
Isu lokubheja inani elingaguquki ku-rouletteIsu le-Paroli ku-roulette (i-Martingale ehlehlayo)
Kungani kubalulekile kumdlali
Ukuguquguquka yikho okwenza amaseshini amafushane angabikezeleki futhi amade abikezeleke. Uma u-σ = $100 ne-EV = −$27 ekujikelezeni okungu-100, inzuzo yekhasino iyingxenye yesine yomsindo (ukuguquguquka okungahleliwe) futhi iseshini ewinayo iyinto ejwayelekile. Ekujikelezeni okungu-10,000 i-EV ingu-−$2,700 no-σ ungu-$1,000; manje inzuzo yekhasino icishe iphindwe kathathu kunomsindo futhi ukuwina okulandelanayo kuyisenzakalo sama-sigma amathathu. Ukuguquguquka kungumngane womdlali esikhathini esifushane futhi kungumngane wekhasino esikhathini eside.
Ukuguquguquka kokubheja okuhlanganisiwe
Ekubhejeni okuningana ekujikelezeni okufanayo, imiphumela iyahlobana (ukuphuma kuka-17 kuphinde kube ukuwina kokumnyamaukubhejaMnyamaUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni ezimnyama eziyi-18. NgesiFulentshi: noir.Funda konke → nedaziniukubhejaIdazini1–12, 13–24 noma 25–36, kukhokha u-2:1.Funda konke → lesibili), ngakho ukuguquguquka akuhlanganiswa nje kalula. Ithuluzi elithi Umakhi wokubheja libala ukusabalala okuqondile kwanoma yiliphi iqoqo lamathokheniimaliIthokheniUphawu olumele inani elinqunyiwe, olubekwa ethebuleni lokubheja ukuze ubheje. Kubuye kuthiwe: check.Funda konke → ngokubala yonke imiphumela engu-37, okuyiyona ndlela kuphela efanele yokukwenza.
Ifomula
Imibuzo
Cha. Konke ukubheja kunenani elilindelekile elifanayo. Ukuguquguquka okuphezulu kusho ukushintsha okukhulu ngaseduze kwalo.
Ukubheja okulingana nemaliukubhejaUkubheja okulingana nemaliBomvu/mnyama, engalingani/elinganayo, phezulu/phansi. Izinombolo eziyi-18, kukhokha u-1:1.Funda konke →, ngo-σ ≈ 1 eyunithini ngayinye. Kuphansi nakakhulu nge-la partageumthethoLa partageUmthetho waseFrance: lapho kuphuma iqanda, uhhafu wenani elibhejwe ekubhejeni okulingana nemali uyabuyiswa. Kwehlisa inzuzo yekhasino kulokho kubheja ngesigamu iye ku-1.35%.Funda konke →, ephinde ithuthukise nesilinganiso.
Inzuzo elindelekile iyafana edoleni ngalinye; ukuguquguquka kuthinta kuphela ukuthi imali engenayo yekhasino ingalingani kangakanani, futhi ikhasino inezinkulungwane zabadlali ezikwenza kulingane.
Ubumnandi bezibalo
Zama lezi ngokwakho kuqala. Isixazululo ngasinye sifihliwe; sivule uma usukulungile.
Abadlali ababili, ngamunye ubheja u-$1 ekujikelezeni ngakunye kokungu-100 esondweni laseYurophu, omunye njalo ku-bomvuukubhejaBomvuUkubheja okulingana nemali ezinombolweni eziyi-18 ezibomvu. NgesiFulentshi: rouge.Funda konke →, omunye njalo ku-17. Ngubani onamathuba amakhulu okuba phambili ekugcineni?
Bonisa isixazululo
Impendulo Umdlali obheja ku-17: 50.9%, uma kuqhathaniswa no-35.5% wokubomvu. Bobabili balahlekelwa u-$2.70 ngokwesilinganiso.
Okubomvu: umdlali uphambili ngokuwina okungu-51 noma ngaphezulu kokungu-100, ngakunye ngamathubaizibaloAmathubaIthuba lomphumela, kusukela ku-0 kuya ku-1 noma ku-0% kuya ku-100%. Inombolo eyodwa: 1/37 = 2.70%.Funda konke → angu-18/37. Ukusabalala kwe-binomial kunikeza u-35.5%, kanti ukuwina okungu-50 ncamashi, okulinganayo, kungu-7.7% ongeziwe.
Inombolo 17: ukuwina ngakunye kubuyisa u-$36, ngakho ukuwina okubili (−$28) akwanele kanti okuthathu (+$8) kuyanela. Amathuba okuphuma kathathu noma ngaphezulu ekujikelezeni okungu-100 ngo-1/37 angu-50.9%.
Umdlali we-straight up uba phambili kaningi, kodwa imiphumela iyagxumagxuma: ukuphuma okukodwa ngaphezulu noma ngaphansi kushintsha umphumela ngo-$36, futhi abadlali abasemuva bavame ukuba semuva kakhulu. U-Bollman (2024) unikeza izibalo zaseMelika, 26.5% no-49.2%.
Okokuhlekisa
Ukulahlekelwa okulindelekile okufanayo. Okukodwa kwalokhu kubheja kukutshela ngakho ngokumemeza.
Imithombo
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.